[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

The velocity and spin rate that the teams are looking for is destroying arms. The teams don't care because they'll just bring up the next guy plus it keeps salaries down because they aren't going to pay guys with an arm that's shot. I'm surprised that the union hasn't done more to protect the players and their earning potential.

It was back in 2015 that I was following the rise of a Cardinal prospect named Alex Reyes. Kid threw 96 with a waterfall curve and hellish movement on his breaking stuff.

He came into camp throwing 101 and everyone was jerking themselves off. And the MOMENT I saw him pitch, I knew he was doomed. Because I, a stupid layperson, could see that he was shoulder-loading. Said it on this very board. I said "man, the Cardinals have him late off so he can add velocity and they've brought his arm slot down (wrecked his curve) and it's going to absolutely destroy him..."

He goes out there smoking minor leaguers and the Cardinals are furiously patting themselves on the back. And again, I'm just sitting here saying "You guys have absolutely ****ed this up. Best pitching prospect we've had in a decade and he's a ticking timebomb..."

He was. He thrown 145 big league innings in 5 years, hasn't pitched since 2021 and is pretty much out of the sport by 29. And had they just let him live at 96/97 with that big curveball and his change he'd have been no worse than a #2 starter for a decade. I saw this trend coming when the Cardinals were so damn proud of themselves for doing it with Reyes almost a decade ago.

If you can take a guy that throws 91 and get him to 95 - I get it. You've taken a AAAA guy and made him a big leaguer, if only for a few years.

But when teams are taking these blue chip arms that naturally throw in the mid-high 90s and then work them over to get to 100+ it's just asinine to me. These guys were going to be really good AND durable. And you've simply traded all possibility for a healthy career for 3 good years of increased velocity.

Hate hate hate hate the way truly good young pitching is handled these days. A guy like Shane Baz, a 3-pitch guy with pristine fastball command, should've been developed to work at 94/95 using command and movement to get outs. He had MORE than enough stuff to be great doing that. But the Rays cranked him up to 11 and immediately broke him.

EDIT: Here it is from May of 2015:

Spoiler!

Huge HUGE qualifier, obviously, but that's how good the guy can be. Personally, I don't care for the reports that he's touching 101 on occasion because that tells me that he's overloading his shoulder to add 2-3 mph of velocity, but if it's the kind of thing he's only doing 2 or 3 times/game, I can live with it.

Too many guys go out there in the minors and start shoulder loading on every pitch. It adds velocity but it will absolutely wreck their arms. If I see Reyes cruising at 99, I'll worry quite a bit about his long-term health because he was sitting at 95-97 a year ago. Sure, sometimes maturation adds a little, but that's a rare bird for a guy that was already built like a 27 yr old (as Reyes was). If he's finding extra velocity, that tells me he's scapula loading to get it and it doesn't speak well to his long-term prognosis.

If the kid is cruising at 96 and can get his walk rate down near the 3.5/9 range, he'll be a monster. Obviously 3.5 isn't a premier walk rate by any means, but with his stuff, it will be good enough to be a dynamite pitcher. At 3.5, he can be Sonny Gray.

https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showpost...postcount=1552

It's really not hard to find velocity - we've known how to do it for awhile. Teams have just decided they don't give a good god damn about the long-term viability of these arms anymore and then bemoan how many of these kids are breaking down.

It's crocodile tear bullshit.