Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
DVOA and its like have REAL blind spots when it comes to teams that pour it on against mediocre and bad teams.
Kind of like run differential in baseball. Cool, an offense is really great at beating the crap out of 5th starters, and teams don't get crazy trying to chase wins and prevent runs in those situations. Does the fact a team won 20-3, with 8 of the runs coming against the worst pitcher on the team and a position player pitching an inning, tell us anything about how that team will do against a good SP/playoff approach?
|
Yeah, thinking it needs to completely ignore games against the bottom 3rd of the league to dismiss teams that run up the score or sleepwalk through those games, but then you're shrinking the sample size even more.
It would be interesting to see how it moves the needle though... or have a "playoff DVOA" that narrows down to playoff competition
It'll never capture what the Chiefs did the season, treating the regular season as one long preseason for the offense, going 1-4 against playoff teams, and then making the SB. And it would probably always have issues with teams like the Eagles that collapse after some impressive wins.... but, would be good to close the gap so it's not so heavily skewed towards beating up on shit teams.