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I think the 49ers have a ton of weapons on offense, but there's no chance Spags won't have a good gameplan for Purdy. And if you have a good gameplan for Purdy, then all those weapons will be downgraded some, along with Sneed smothering Deebo and Gay back on the field. The Omenihu loss hurts, but it almost doesn't matter because Spags can generate a ton of pressures off blitzes. The Ravens had a very good offensive line and a better quarterback, and we still put him in the dirt four times.
The X factor is McCaffrey. If he explodes then all bets are off. And I do think he's going to get some gains. But the Chiefs defense simply isn't going to give up more than 24 points. My guess is the 49ers get 23 points.
Can the Chiefs offense beat that? Because I think the 49ers have a really good defense -- but it's not a defense built to smother us like the Ravens was. Everything the 49ers do well on defense, the Ravens did better. The difference, I suppose, is that the Ravens put a half on film of smothering and shutting down the Chiefs. It wouldn't surprise me if the 49ers stole some of those concepts.
But it doesn't matter. If you're telling Mahomes that he needs to put up 24 points to win the Super Bowl, he's going to put up 24 points.
So the rest of the analysis kind of breaks down for me. The 49ers have smart, athletic linebackers, and a disciplined secondary. Their passrush is very strong.
And just... none of it matters. Andy Reid, Mahomes, Pacheco, Kelce, an offensive line playing at the top of its game right now, Rice, with choice contributions from everybody else... they're just going to get it done.
I give the Chiefs 60/40 odds on this one. The 49ers have enough individual players to make this game winnable if a few of them play at their absolute peak. But the Chiefs are entering this game playing downhill. The 49ers are going to have to fight up uphill.
Did I read it correctly when I said that if the Chiefs win this game, they will have beaten the toughest DVOA opponents en route to a Super Bowl in NFL history? Because entering this season, I very much got the notion that we were entering Prime Mahomes territory for the next 6 years, and I think we're there. It's pretty clear at this point that weather cannot stop him, spread passing offenses cannot stop him, run-heavy physical teams cannot stop him, teams with elite QBs in their own right cannot stop him, the best passrushes in the NFL cannot stop him, playing with the worst WR corps in the NFL cannot stop him, hostile home crowds cannot stop him, ball hawking physical defenses cannot stop him, blitzing defenses cannot stop him, static zone defenses cannot stop him, teams that blanket Kelce cannot stop him, teams that do everything right cannot stop him.
The 49ers present a ton of challenges, from a versatile offense to elite players across their defense. But none of that is going to stop him.
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