Quote:
Originally Posted by Megatron96
Chiefs WRs (excepting Rice 81%/Toney 71%), are catching the ball at about a 56% rate. Skyy has been around 55%, JWat around 51%, MVS 52%, James 50% . . . Also, 8 of Pat's INTs have come while targeting the WRs, per PFF, PFN, NFL Research, CBSSports, ESPN.
So, it wouldn't be 4 our 5; it'd be more like 3 out of 5.
WRs stats, per PFR
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...s/kan/2023.htm |
Catch rate is just receptions divided by targets. It doesn't take into account passes defensed, off the mark or maybe just flat dirted.
From what I can see, the receivers have had 177 'catchable balls' thrown to them this year (i.e. not deflected, defensed or otherwise off the mark) and have dropped 15. Obviously drop stats are unreliable as hell; one mans drop is another man's pass breakup, so there's going to be some signal noise in there, but even presuming that number to be ridiculously low, let's just set it to 27 for the sake of easy math (nearly doubling it) you'd still have 150 of 177 balls caught -- About 85% of them.
Take Rice out of it - 106 catchable balls thrown, 12 drops. And again, you can add 10 to that that number (with no real cause other than being simply conservative in the analysis) and you have 84 catches on 106 catchable passes. That's still 80%.
Again, throw it on time, on target and to the open receiver and the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor that the guy's gonna catch it. Catching 4 of 5 catchable balls is statistically AWFUL. Over large numbers it would be among the worst receiving seasons of all time. And yet it's STILL a better idea than taking a sack or forcing a ball into triple coverage because you won't go through your progressions due to 'trust issues'.
Whoever's running the route, you have to run the offense like he's going to catch it. Because the odds suggest that if the ball gets to him, he will. All emotional outbursts to the contrary.