Quote:
Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501
I’m talking more about dealing with the hand we’re already dealt. If it was a matter of asking mahomes to be a little smarter or work a little harder to get less athletic guys the ball… that’s one thing. Or to overcome a mistake on 2nd down with a big 3rd down play, sure. But we are talking about WRs who punish even semi aggressive play by constantly making costly errors that are way more difficult to overcome.
Most of my reaction is to the idea that we should still try to make Toney work. Or man… I’m even reluctant to be flinging Ross out there this late in the season. At this point we’ve gotta put all our focus on cutting out the mistakes. I like James to fit into that plan because I don’t think he can be worse. It’s not my preferred long term approach. I think other teams have had the flexibility to open up beyond long plodding drives in ways we can’t, But I think it’s plenty workable the rest of this season.
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I think a little perspective is fair here.
We pass the ball, what, 35 times/gm? Let's be conservative and say 20 of those are to WRs.
And let's also be conservative and say the Chiefs WR's have dropped 3/gm (they haven't; it's been closer to 2, but for the sake of easy math, lets say 3).
I mean they're NOT dropping 85% of the balls he throws to them. And yeah, you'd like to see that at the league average; nearer 92% from what I can figure. But shit guys, we're talking a 7% difference. Maybe 1 drop/gm over average.
To put this ALL on the WRs is just weird. To say that 1 extra drop/gm vs. league average means that Mahomes should just presume they'll drop EVERY one of them when in fact they do manage to catch 85% of the balls thrown their way just ignores the math.
That's why I keep saying that Mahomes needs to get out of his head and keep firing. The odds OVERWHELMINGLY suggest his guys will catch the ball. That's just the math. Sometimes they won't - it happens. But if he takes a sack or throws balls into triple coverage on 5 plays in a given game, that's 5 negative plays when the reality of the math says that if throws that ball 5 times to the open guys 'he doesn't trust' - 4 of those balls WILL be caught and he'll just have to stomach the 5th.
The math is what it is here. These guys aren't dropping everything. They're dropping more than we (or he, or they) want them to but that STILL doesn't mean he's better served over any meaningful timeline to stop playing the position the right way.