Quote:
Originally Posted by Megatron96
The more I watch this clip, the more I think no one's really open.
Sure, Watson at thhe top of the screen is technically open when he breaks, but firt of all, he's short of the sticks by about 5-6 yards. Two, he's crossing towards the middle at a pretty fast rate; Pat can't throw at Justin or behind him even a little. He has to lead him, and by a decent amount considering how fast Justin's going from left to right.
And the rush beats the OL at about the 4.5sec mark. The ball has to be gone by about 4.7 seconds, right? Stop the clip at 5 sec and go back a tad. Is Justin really 'wide open'?
It doesn't look like it to me. It looks like a rapidly shrinking window that he'd have to lead by 3-4 yards from 28 yards away with a rusher in his face.
I mean, maybe if Watson had come back directly towards Pat more. Would've made it more like 4th and 10, but Pat wouldn't have to lead him, and the defender to the middle wouldn't be in play and the other defender is stacked behind Watson. But he runs across the field.
MVS, well, guessing that has to be MVS streaking down the middle with triple coverage, so he's never open.
Whoever that is underneath MVS isn't open either, plus he's 10 yds short of the sticks?
Gray is never a real target, both because of his depth, and the fact that the rush gets to Pat before he can even look at Gray.
The outlet, as usual, doesn't count.
I don't think anyone's legitmately open in that clip; prove me wrong?
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The guy at the top is wide open and most likely gets a first down, or at least, very close.
This is Mahomes at the top of his 5 step drop, just as the receiver is ready to break.
The defender is 5 yards down field and the nearest to him has his back turned in the middle of the field.
This is Mahomes after 2 bunny hops, after the receiver has made his break. The defender is still 4 yards deeper.
If Mahomes lets the ball go at the top of his drop, the receiver catches it in stride and gets a first down. Mahomes never set his feet and he was in zero danger of pressure when he reached the top of his drop. He hit 5 then hop hop and by then it was too late. He's looking left the entire time and should be able to make that throw quickly and easily.
Here's the clip in real time for comparison. Stop it when he reaches his depth and then imagine he throws the ball right then. The receiver in the middle of the field carries his defender down the field and the guy covering the WR is always 3-5 yards deeper.
EDIT: I will say this. #84 runs a really wacky looking route. Should be a 15yd dig but he kind of double hinges it and stutter steps in the middle of his break. Weird.