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Will Miami Score on and Beat a Good Team?
The narrative on the 2023 Dolphins is a familiar one in NFL history. Great offense, smart coaching and design, record-setting speed, but they got crushed in the only 2 games where they played a good opponent (Bills and Eagles), and the defense has not impressed.
That’s a good recipe for playoff disappointment as Mike McDaniels’ team has a strength of victory against teams that have won 28.3% of their games this season. That ranks 31st in the league and is easily the weakest for any team with a winning record right now.
This goes back to last season too as the Dolphins have not beaten a playoff team since the Bills in Week 3 of the 2022 season. Since then, we watched them go 0-6 against 2022 playoff teams, and they’ve already lost 48-20 to the Bills and 31-17 to the Eagles this year on the road.
The Clash for AFC Supremacy
If the Dolphins don’t want to hear about how they can’t beat a good team, then maybe they should show us they can beat a good team. The defending champions from Kansas City would count, and we know Tyreek Hill has this game circled as it’ll be his first against his former team.
Hill is averaging 126.8 receiving yards per game to lead the league, he eyes the first 2,000-yard receiving season, and you know he’ll want to have a big game against a Kansas City defense that looks better than ever in the Patrick Mahomes era.
The Chiefs just allowed a season-high 24 points to Denver, but that was misleading as thanks to 5 turnovers, Denver started every scoring drive in Kansas City territory. Denver only finished with 240 yards of offense, including 87 net passing yards.
If the Dolphins can hang a nice point total on this defense in a game of this magnitude, then they will be the new Super Bowl favorite in the AFC and in control of the No. 1 seed.
Can the Chiefs Still Keep Up in a Shootout?
The Chiefs are not giving up the title without a fight, but we see why no team has been able to repeat since the 2003-04 Patriots. It is so hard in this league when you lose players and other teams improve. But the Chiefs have not drafted well, and it is hurting them at wide receiver as Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Rashee Rice are just not an acceptable group of replacements for Tyreek Hill.
Travis Kelce is still great, but if a defense can do whatever it can to take him away, then who do the Chiefs go to? Even the running game is too inconsistent to rely on. But the turnovers have been a big problem as the Chiefs are minus-4 in that differential with 16 giveaways already this season. The Chiefs only had 23 giveaways in 17 games last season, so they are on pace for over 32 this year.
Mahomes’ Elite Season
Mahomes is still having an elite season in what is a weak year for quarterback play around the league, but if he has to score 30-plus points to win a game like this, we do not know if he can still do it with this cast. The Chiefs have already been held under 21 points in 4 games this year, which is a game shy of the 2021 season when they did that 5 times, still the most in any season with Mahomes since 2018.
But after a 5-turnover game and Mahomes having the flu, maybe the team needed that loss in Denver to refocus and improve. This is a good week for people to turn on the Chiefs and back Miami as the hot new thing in the AFC, but if history has shown us anything, it’s usually the more balanced, former championship team that succeeds over the latest flash in the pan team.
The Pick
This game will do a lot for the narratives of the 2023 NFL season. Rather than make a prediction on the spread, we’ll just take the over with both teams having a lot to prove with their offenses led by the top MVP candidates. A 27-26 game to start Sunday would be excellent.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 27 – Chiefs 26
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