Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry
If you don't make it and can force them to 3 and out with a field goal you still have time to try and score a touchdown
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"IF" you don't make it should be "when" you don't make it. The distance is everything here not anything else. The conversion rate at 15yds is only 13.9%. What do you think it is by the time we get to 25 yards (can't find any data on that long because well no one ever tries it)? I am guessing a couple % if that.
You also have to factor in when the Lions get the ball back there is a possibility they score no more points and Chiefs get ball back with plenty of time for Mahomes. Or who knows what else might happen. But they are going to have to play offense when you have 4 timeouts. The point is 4th and 25 is NOT happening 97% of the time. So you take that off the table. There is no value to gain at such a low success rate regardless of the situation or anything else. Unless it is a total Hail Mary situation.