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Originally Posted by ThaVirus
Anyway, thank you all as well as Buehler for the advice.
I am 100% not built for the individual stock game lol y'all are different.
My next issue is the constant threat of this looming recession. What does everyone make of that?
Part of me thinks it'd be best to just park the bulk of this cash into a HYSA and ride it out 'til the storm's over. It looks like you can find quite a few with returns between 3-5%. The other part of me says **** it, throw it into some ETFs. Even if/when the market dips, it'll recover down the line and it's best to be in when that recovery starts.
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I missed this, must have been while typing what I would do.
I wouldn't worry about it. Park a good chunk in an interest bearing account, and if it makes you queasy, put less into the ETFs and more into the money market account. But I think with as much as you've got sitting around, making an investment in the future is prudent.
Like lew said, you'll fail far more often than you succeed trying to time the market. Just put it in regularly and you'll be good - kind of like an extension of your 401K, same principle. After your emergency fund is adequate and your tax shelters are maxed, get it in an ETF.
As far as the question, I think a recession is likely. The labor market AND the interest rates are not both sustainable to maintain corporate earnings. The most effective way to boost corporate earnings is layoffs. I think the job market will fade some.
I haven't looked at any of the metrics, but my opinion on the ground is US inflation is slowed substantially. I think it's probably close to a sustainable level. That points to interest rates slowing and perhaps rolling over.
However, I'm reading that inflation in Europe is not cooling off. Yada yada global economy yada yada interest isn't going anywhere. I think we're going to plod along for a while here. Bank profitability will remain difficult with poor interest rates spreads, and there might be more failures. I think there will be a lot of overstaffed, inefficient companies will eat shit. I think the bumps CEOs got from mentioning "AI" in their earnings calls. I think there will be some bright spots, too though. I think the chip companies that are onshoring production will see sizable growth. I think there will be some unwinding of activist price moves. I think if some shipping companies can staff up and lean out there is real growth opportunities there. I think infrastructure companies will cash in on government money.
But I'm a flaming moron, so don't make any decisions based off my dumbass analysis.