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Tua if he manages to play the rest of his games seems like the biggest threat to Mahomes winning MVP. His QBR is 5.4 points higher than Mahomes and the leader in QBR have been winning a lot of MVPs recently. Burrow is very far behind in QBR and already lost 4 games so I see him as a dark horse candidate.
Rodgers twice, Jackson, Mahomes all led the league in QBR during their recent MVP seasons. In 2017, Brady didn't but the leader I believe was Keenum playing less games and not having as high of a passer rating as Brady. In 2016, Matt Ryan narrowly led in QBR and won MVP. Cam Newton in 2015 is an example of a QB winning MVP with a relatively pedestrian QBR. The advantage that Newton has over Hurts is a better narrative and the perception that he was the better player.
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