[KChiefs1]

Canzano:

Spoiler!

PAC-12 FRONT: There’s a real shortage of sourced, in-depth reporting when it comes to the Pac-12 Conference and its media rights conundrum. I’m only giving you what I can verify with multiple, well-placed sources for that reason. I appreciate you being here for it.

Three things:

• The 30-day exclusive negotiating window with ESPN and Fox is closing (or already closed) today. I think the Pac-12 presidents and chancellors have a solid idea of the early media rights valuation, but several ADs told me on Wednesday that they hadn’t yet seen numbers. I believe them. I don’t think the conference wants that information out there yet, and I expect the Pac-12 to slow play this. They’ll get ESPN’s first offer, but not its best offer. The rest of the market needs a chance to bid and that won’t come until after the Big Ten finalizes its media package. Any numbers you hear or see are just guesses until you hear and see them from a sourced entity.

• There were erroneous reports that originated from media members, particularly in Arizona, about the conference’s four corners schools meeting with the Big 12 Conference. I’ve talked with high-level sources at all four of those institutions (Utah, Arizona, ASU and Colorado). No meetings were even scheduled. It was all smoke and no fire. One of the ADs from those universities told me at the time, “No meeting with Big 12 and George (Kliavkoff) is kicking ass.”

Those who reported the meetings as fact, whiffed. They’re spitballing and guessing or just listening to the wrong people. As I wrote in a column on Wednesday, there is (and always has been) only one threat to the Pac-12 — the Big Ten. It remains the lone threat.

• I’m more interested in the “kicking ass” part of that AD’s quote, aren’t you? Kliavkoff fashions himself a problem solver. I want to see if he’s as good as advertised. On that front, I keep circling back to a potential “loose partnership” with the ACC, which the Pac-12 began exploring a few weeks ago.

If the Pac-12 is looking for creative and new revenue, inviting ESPN to enhance the value of the ACC isn’t a bad play. Not talking about a merger here. That would require the ACC’s grant of rights to be unwound and free some restless members. I’m talking about some creative early-season football and men’s basketball games and seeded crossover games during championship-game week in Las Vegas. Also, ESPN could combine the ACC Network with the Pac-12 Networks to generate a pile of fresh content for ESPN+. It makes sense for all parties and adds some value to what the Pac-12 is shopping.

• Expansion is still out there, too. San Diego State is interesting because it brings 1.1 million TV households in Southern California. Also, it would allow the conference to play some “home” games in Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium, potentially. I think SMU is a potential No. 2 target, if the conference expands. I also think Houston is interesting, depending on whether it can wiggle out of its Big 12 commitment.

After that, Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State have some selling points. However, I expect the presidents and chancellors of the conference won’t make an expansion move unless it’s a no-brainer. They’re not risk takers. Beyond San Diego State, I’m having a difficult time finding a great fit. I wonder if the better short-term plan is to try and retain UCLA and pair it with San Diego State. It’s a long, long shot. I don’t expect it to happen. But it’s absolutely what I’d try before moving on.

I’ll have more as this develops.

Another college football season is approaching. There’s a pile of uncertainty. Re-alignment has sparked fears and doubts in the Pac-12 Conference. The loss of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten was a gut punch. The conference is now trying to pull itself together while angling for media rights money and access to the College Football Playoff.

The Big Ten and SEC are busy chasing new revenue and monopolizing the playoff. The sports world is shifting. Loyalty, tradition and geography don’t seem to matter. And I wonder what happens to fan interest if large swaths of the Pacific and Mountain Time Zones are shut out of the sport.

Apathy, probably.

Frustration, for sure.

Canzano: Pac-12 AD says remaining conference members have no time for "noise"

ADs say they're committed.

Spoiler!

I’ve talked with more than half of the Pac-12 Conference athletic directors since the defection of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten was announced.

Maybe I’m naive, but none of them sound imminently concerned about the Pac-12 being further poached. Not two weeks ago. And not earlier this week. But I reached out to one of the South Division ADs on Friday to check in anyway. In the course of conversation, I asked whether the Big 12 had ever made contact.

Was that ever a thing?

Is it still?

The answer came back: “We’re focused on our task, working with incumbent media, and other nine schools, that I don’t have time nor attention for the Big 12 noise.”

What about the University of Arizona?

Are they a candidate to be poached?

“They are right there with us,” the AD told me.

Again, I could be a sucker. But I’m here to serve as a conduit between the entities I cover and my readers. I’m only going to give you sourced, in-depth reporting and analysis. I’ll tell you what I know. And right now, I have a multitude of Pac-12 ADs all essentially saying the same thing — they are galvanized and believe the conference has good options. Like you, I’m eager to learn what those are.

It may prove that Oregon, Washington and Stanford one day become targets of another round of expansion in the Big Ten. But nothing feels imminent and nobody is sitting by the telephone, waiting to see what happens.

There is some strategizing going on, however.

The SEC and Big Ten members are going to receive distributions from their conferences that dwarf what Pac-12 members receive. The SEC distributed nearly $55 million to each member in the last fiscal cycle (2021). That figure will grow, year over year. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 doled out $33.6 million to each member in 2020. And estimates of the Big Ten’s future distributions fall between $70 million to $100 million a year.

How will the Pac-12 members stay competitive?

Said one North Division AD: “Like we always have. We’ll just have to spend a larger percentage of what we receive on football and men’s basketball. We’ll make a larger investment, percentage-wise. That’s what UCLA was going to have to do if it stayed in the conference. That’s what we’ll all do — go heavy in football — because that’s where the biggest returns will always be.”

The University of Oregon, for example, spent $24.5 million on football in the last fiscal year (2021). That figure was skewed by the pandemic, but I’ll be curious to see if the Ducks and some other contenders ramp up spending in pursuit of the College Football Playoff. Also, I’ll follow where Oregon, and other Pac-12 universities, might cut back — Olympic sports.

Had UCLA stayed in the Pac-12, it would have been faced with that exact dilemma. I don’t think the Bruins would have dropped its prestigious track and field program. But I doubt UCLA would have funded the program as well as it will after the defection to the Big Ten.

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