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John Canzano:
I cringed when I heard UCLA and USC announce they were leaving the Pac-12 Conference in 2024. I’m a traditionalist and I lamented the loss the more than 100 years of conference history.
I was also initially skeptical when I heard politicians might get involved in an attempt to block UCLA’s departure to the Big Ten Conference. But the more I talk with lawmakers, the more I believe the Bruins’ biggest athletic battle this season will take place in Sacramento.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom isn’t happy that he didn’t know about UCLA’s departure. Maybe it’s posturing, maybe not. But what’s clear is that Newsom is fired up and wondering why the move wasn’t discussed and debated with the University of California Regents.
More than one athletic department source at UCLA confessed to me that they were surprised the defection news didn’t leak a few weeks before the announcement.
Mike Baumgartner is a former State Senator in Washington. He’s served on a variety of educational and sports committees. He’s closely following the development and sees some troubles forming on the horizon for the Bruins.
“The UC Regents themselves didn’t know what UCLA was up to and no public vote was taken,” Baumgartner said. “It’s still unclear what the majority of them think, but they could do anything from stop it outright to vote to make UCLA athletics subsidize and financial damage to Cal.”
A subsidy would be an interesting compromise. It would penalize UCLA and bolster Cal, but it wouldn’t ease the anxiety of the bondholders of the UC system. The Bruins stand to rake in somewhere between $75 million to $100 million in annual media rights revenue under the Big Ten’s TV deal with Fox. Would having to share revenue with Cal give UCLA pause? Or just serve as a speed bump?
Baumgartner’s alliance is with the Washington schools. But his expertise puts him in a unique position here. He knows the back channels and understands the dynamics better than most. He cautioned me to not listen too carefully to Political Science professors who are busy going on the record with various news outlets saying the Newsom doesn’t have the authority to block the move.
“Nobody knows less about how politics actually works than poli-sci professors,” Baumgartner said. “The leverage a Governor has over a public university is immense. If Newsom doesn’t want UCLA to go, they won’t be going.”
I’m sort of interested to see how the Bruins would perform in football in the Big Ten. They’ve been to one bowl game in the last six seasons and haven’t played in a Rose Bowl since 1998.
Chip Kelly went 8-4 last season and I think his team is going to be competitive again this season, but how many games would UCLA win in a typical Big Ten football season?
TV money is great. And you’d rather not be left behind in college football’s minor leagues(ACC/Big 12), but I can tell you the remaining 10 universities in the Pac-12 are buzzing about how challenging football will be for the Bruins.
6-6?
7-5?
What’s “making it” in the Big Ten for the Bruins’ football program? UCLA has won more than seven games only once in the last six seasons while playing in the Pac-12.
If the resolution here ends up being a heavy subsidy, it’s possible UCLA is facing a lose-lose situation. If UCLA leaves for the Big Ten, gets its teeth kicked in, spends significant revenue on the extra travel, and has to cut Cal a check at the end, is that really a win?
Said Baumgartner: “UCLA’s leadership will be cowering for forgiveness.”
I’ll update with more as this develops.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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