Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicHef
That's exactly what his link is looking at. It looks at each throw and determines its probability of being intercepted, compiles that throughout the season, and compares that to how many throws actually were intercepted.
Either Chiefs fans are overestimating how many good throws Mahomes made that ended up being intercepted, or Mahomes also made a lot of bad throws that were not intercepted.
|
These are the only examples I can find quickly. This sort of thing doesn't happen consistently to anyone. But it did last year to the Chiefs, and especially Hill. It's not uncommon for an overthrow to bounce off the fingertips of a WR and get picked off, but it's very rare for accurate, low, routine throws like this to be intercepted. 99% of the time it falls straight to the ground if it's dropped.
In fact, the season ended with Hill tapping a great pass from Mahomes right into the hands of a Bengals DB.
As far as that analysis, I'd imagine that there were a number of poor throws that balanced it out a bit. But strong-armed QBs tend to have a lot of dropped picks.