[Iczer]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Because the NFL isn't ending after the 2022 season. Trading up doesn't mean you have a higher chance of hitting. It just means that you have less chances of finding talent.

I mean statistics don't match with what you said. Albeit, older articles.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ess-in-the-nfl

In 2012, retained draft choices accounted for 6,577 games started, which means 58.3 percent of games were represented by players who had been originally drafted by their respected organizations. A truly large number at first glance.

When you think about how many players are selected in Rounds 4 through 7 and subsequently cut before the season even starts, it helps you understand how top-heavy teams are. Based on the numbers provided by Draftmetrics, 71.8 percent of players drafted in Rounds 1, 2 and 3 are retained by the team that drafted them.

Only 28.2 percent of players drafted in Rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7 were retained at the end of their first contract—which is a number that is largely supported by an abundance of fourth-round picks re-upping. Rounds 5, 6 and 7 made up 16.7 percent of the 28.2 percent total.

https://www.ideo.com/datascope/the-c...-the-nfl-draft

First, picking at the end of the second round only gives your team a 50% chance of finding a starter. Going towards the end of the round 3, your chance of finding a starter falls to ~30%

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/...h=33d1f1fa7495

The median percentage of games started for players drafted in rounds 4 through 7 from the 2010 draft was extremely low, never rising above 7% of games played over the last 5 years.