Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city
But that would speak to the team specificity of the actual draft pick. Whoever the Chiefs pick or the Packers pick etc are more likely to be successful because of who they are actually picked by.
From an actual player picked standpoint, the 32 pick isn't different than 33. Circumstances matter more.
If QB's fell and or there is someone willing to come up for a player, do it. Every time.
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Sure - there's some static in the analysis without question. There always will be.
The idea being that the law of large numbers would help to cancel some of that out.
You can't get a perfect answer, but I think over a large enough sample size you can get some meaningful data. And I think the data sure suggests that yes, 1st round picks are more valuable than 2nd rounders. But that they are perhaps not as much more valuable as sometimes suggested. Additionally, it really suggests (quite loudly, in fact) that 2nd and 3rd round picks are much more valuable than conventionally understood.
I think what some of us are guilty of, myself included, is taking our 'franchise QB or bust' mindset and carrying it forward. When it comes to the QB position, 2nd and 3rd is a wasteland. And we hammered that point so hard for so long that 2nd and 3rd round picks just became afterthoughts to us. But in actuality, when it comes to every OTHER position on the board, they're not substantially less likely to hit than 1st rounders are. At least in relation to other picks that could be taken.
I suppose what you could do to counter that is say "well wait a minute, a late 3rd rounder at 111 points is half as likely to be successful as a late 1st at 220..."
And then the math starts to check out a bit. But if you can take that late 1st and then turn it into a mid-2nd and a mid 3rd then do some combined probability work, you're well ahead w/ the latter scenario.
But then I just get crosseyed again and start praying for the draft to hurry up and get here.
Like I said - it's all just jerking off until the picks are actually up and you see who's available.