Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city
That 25 point jump from 32 to 33 seems pretty wild no?
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Not really.
I can't speak directly to how they got it, but I've always said that the 'well it's really just a 2nd round pick' crowd is kinda stupid.
It isn't a 2nd round pick. It's a first round pick. A late first, yes. But it's a first round pick. And folks that try to hand-waive that fact make very little sense to me.
I think there IS some white noise that may drive that a little bit though. 33 is typically going to a bad situation on a bad team. It's also likely a team looking at really high variance players; boom/bust types that will often bust. Whereas that pick at the back of 1 is either made by a very good team looking for a lower variance contributor OR a team that's traded into the round for a very specific target that has slid.
In either event, I think the results are about what I'd expect - a 1st round pick does have more value than a 2nd rounder. And by a not insignificant amount. But ultimately I think it really shows that the tops of these rounds aren't as valuable as we thought and in many ways the 2nd and 3rd rounds are where you can REALLY turn a draft into a mammoth haul.