Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Yeah, I just don't put a lot of stock in TD numbers, especially short TDs.
It's a fair point to say they can be demonstrative of a good season, but they're not predictive. I mean Julio Jones used to get blasted for not having many red zone TDs and I can't think of a guy more suited to that task than he is. By and large they're a product of usage. I don't think they demonstrate a meaningful skill set on their own.
6 of JuJu's 9 TDs came from inside 10 yards in 2020. Meanwhile Julio Jones had 5 of them in his first 4 seasons vs 26 overall. And I don't think anyone would argue that JuJu is a better red zone threat than peak Julio.
They may give an okay snapshot of what someone did - but not a very good data point for determining what they will do going forward. Like QB passing TDs in the red zone, they're just super volatile and there seems to be no predictive value to them. By and large players regress to the mean.
It's white noise, IMO.
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I will say one thing about red zone, and especially gold zone, passing TD's - for the Chiefs, those numbers probably ARE a good data point for predicting future numbers because of the sheer volume of passes the Chiefs throw in those situations. I would expect any WR playing in this system to have somewhat inflated TD numbers, including Juju if he comes here.