Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man
Analytics are great, but at some point you have to recognize how the game on the field is going. Staley kept going for it against a defense that was stuffing him. Terrible decision making on his part.
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So they had, what, 5 drives where they went for it on 4th from inside FG range?
And they converted 2 of those, but 1 of those conversions turned into a turnover a couple plays later. So they could've had 15 points on those drives and instead they ended up with 7. So net loss of 8.
But here's the thing - it took 3 pretty amazing stands to get close there. I mean if Jackson doesn't fumble a ball at the 1 yard line and they punch that one in then they have 14 points vs. 15 due to 4th downs despite only converting them at a 40% clip.
Or if their TE doesn't die and drop a ball he'd had caught when he went to the ground.
I mean yeah, ifs and buts and what not - but if anything, as poorly as things went for the Chargers on 4th down, they weren't far from coming out WAY ahead.
In a strange way as I was watching this unfold I was even more convinced that Staley had the right approach. I think if you're looking at 4th and 3 or shorter and you're inside the 40, go ahead and go for it. The only time I think I'd change my mind is if it's to take the lead in the 2nd half (I wish Andy would've kicked that one that Mahomes duffed) or to turn a 1 score lead into a 2 score lead in the 4th quarter.