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Originally Posted by Buehler445
I'm not saying I know anything, or really have much of an opinion. Really all I know there is a ****ton of volatility in my industry. However, there are definitely bearish counterpoints to bullish arguments.
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Yeah, housing starts and jobs (horrible) had bad beats recently. GDP revisions down. The number of people reporting they couldn't work due to covid dropped from 3.7 million to 2.8. It seems like that's a good sign if it keeps up.
I don't know what'll happen with a lot of the supply/demand imbalances. Like Oil futures going sub-zero I'm sure we'll continue to see interesting stuff. They are a risk to stifling growth at too high of rates.
I guess I only see the economy beating for the next few quarters. I mean, the yoy comps are insanely low. Halfcan was implying a major economic correction. We're going to start doing worse than last year? I can't believe that, we're Jamaal Charles competing in the special olympics right now in yoy comps.
I believe in the US consumer spending. There is supposedly a ton of money trapped in checking/savings accounts. The direct monthly payments for child tax credits will start going out this summer. I can't imagine that won't get spent by a huge chunk of the population.
I find inflation to be the biggest concern. I drove home tonight listening to commercials of companies paying to advertise that they'd give $17 an hour to new entry level warehouse employees. This might be a bias, my worth is mostly in stocks, if the economy grows slower that hasn't worked so bad for me.. less so if inflation forces huge interest rate increases. 40x revs SaaS companies would freefall