Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage
I think most people are worried the economy will be too hot and inflation might cause significant interference eventually from the Fed. Unless there is a war or new strain of covid that's incredibly deadly, I can't imagine the economy doing poorly.
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There are some data points that go against that position.
Unemployment is the big one. The idea that there is a giant, widespread ****ing labor shortage AND high unemployment, well, I don't ****ing know what that means. That's just ****ing...madness. Nonetheless, unemployment almost universally is an indicator of economic downturn.
It is really, REALLY difficult for the economy to run with high fuel prices. Talk tech all you want, but the simple truth is the geographic spread that dominates the history of the United States still must be overcome for society to operate, including the economy.
Regarding investments, there is some real overvalues of some companies. If there is an short-intermediate term correction, it will have a pretty substantial impact on the stock markets. I mean hell not long ago Musk said Tesla was overvalued at $450.
And of course....inflation.
I don't even know WTF is going on in lumber, but that will undoubtedly move the needle on inflation of various hardgoods, notably homes. Steel, same shit. Apparently rough electrical components have went berzerk. Local coop is trying to build a bin and the electrical components have blown up by (IIRC) 4x. That will move it. Even if it is fairly short lived (it will take awhile to move through the supply chain if there is a short-intermediate term correction).
Supply Chain disruptions for components have already moved other hardgoods and has substantially driven up the prices of common inflation-driving products. These price movements are over a year old and will undoubtedly move the inflation number.
And while they aren't included in formal inflation numbers that will be used to determine interest rates, food and fuel as well as other smaller consumer goods price increases really affect a wide swath of the populations purchasing power.
I'm not saying I know anything, or really have much of an opinion. Really all I know there is a ****ton of volatility in my industry. However, there are definitely bearish counterpoints to bullish arguments.