[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

This is a somewhat lengthy pod but a good listen: https://twitter.com/adamlefkoe/statu...498086400?s=21

It’s Warren Sharp and Adam Lefkoe talking about the game in great detail with the added element of Sharp’s analytical system.

Sharp says that the SF defense is being greatly overrated and he goes into supreme detail as to why, including why KC is a very dangerous matchup for them. Beyond anything I could type up here — but I’ll add a couple of details.

- Apparently SF has never played an offense that uses anywhere close to as much motion as KC (by the numbers). Their pass defense has had much lower success rates against motions when they have seen them.

- DJ will like the line in there about how SFs pass rush productivity is league average on 1st and 2nd down, but the best in the league on 3rd down.

- He says that 11 personnel is SFs biggest issue and they are worst in the NFL in success rate against 11 inside the red zone. The Niners in general have one of the worst RZ rates as a defense in general, per Sharp’s data.

- 49ers defense came in dead last among the 12 playoff teams in terms of defensive success rate against play action.

- Big picture: 49ers defense is totally reliant on getting 3rd down sacks based on Sharp’s data. Sharp says just stay aggressive if you’re KC, pass and pass some more, and avoid those 3rd and longs.

On the flip side.... they do seem to expect a lot of points in this game, even from SF.

- He sees Garoppolo in a much better light than the media perception.

- Chiefs defense had the worst run defense success rate against run plays that had pre-snap motion. Chiefs defense is also rated out badly against play action.

- Chiefs defense is the #2 pass rushing defense on 3rd down (behind SF).

- Chiefs defense 5th worst against 21 personnel, 49ers use it frequently.

- Chiefs defense is very good on early downs with cover 3, but Garoppolo has been equally good against it on early downs.

I was curious about that motion stat. So many of chiefs stats are skewed badly by our disastrous first half of the season on defense. I wonder how that's looked since we've improved. Bill Barnwell also has a really comprehensive look at the 49ers. He talked about how our DL rotations could be tricky. It was easy to swap Pennel and Chris jones based on which rb was in the game. We can't do that vs the 49ers.

I was also looking at the history of spags vs Kyle Shanahan. It's really bad. But interestingly enough, I don't think he's ever faced Shanahan with good personnel. Shanahan has always faced a spags defense that's been ranked toward the bottom.

Our defense is starting to make me a little nervous. But as Ray Lewis said and I buy this, landlord is a big time x factor. He points out that when garopolo throws he very often goes to the middle of the field. Because it's super safe. That's the type of qb Mathieu can play head games with.

I think our D will have tough sledding. But they'll do just enough to help our offense win.