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From Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic on SB prop bets. He's taking the Chiefs at -1 by the way:
Total yards of 49ers TDs: Over 45.5 (-115)
They had 18 touchdowns of 20-plus yards in the regular season. That was tied for second most behind only the Chiefs. I think the 49ers will be able to hit on some explosive plays in this one, and the over might hit by halftime. If you’re wondering about the Chiefs for this same bet, their over/under is 59.5 yards.
Damien Williams 53.5 rushing yards: Under (-115)
This is Reid’s second Super Bowl appearance and his best chance to take home a title. Only the 2018 Steelers passed at a higher rate than the 2019 Chiefs. You don’t really think Reid is going to go into this game wanting to run the ball, do you? Williams has totaled just 92 yards on 29 carries (3.2 per carry) in two playoff games.
Jimmy Garoppolo 19.5 completions: Over (-110)
Eight pass attempts is not going to cut it in this game. Garoppolo is going to have to throw the ball. He went over 19.5 completions eight times during the regular season, and as noted in our analytical preview, Garoppolo’s expected completion percentage was third-highest in the league. In other words, the scheme allows for some high-percentage completions. I think he’s in the 20s in this game.
Patrick Mahomes 31.5 rushing yards: Under (-103)
The fact that he’s run for 106 yards in two playoff games has bumped this number up. But the 49ers play a lot of zone, meaning their defenders will have eyes on the quarterback. And they’re fast and athletic at linebacker. Maybe Mahomes picks up a first down or two with his legs, but I don’t think his rushing is going to be a big factor.
Number of players to have a passing attempt: Over 2.5 (+124)
The Super Bowl is when coaches empty out the playbook. In Super Bowl LII between the Eagles and Patriots, four players attempted a pass. The year before, the number was three. I’m saying either Reid or Shanahan pulls out a trick play, or maybe we see a fake punt or fake field goal to push the over.
Emmanuel Sanders more receiving yards than Sammy Watkins: (+115)
Sanders has been quiet (just two catches for 33 yards in two playoff games), but he played really well for the 49ers earlier this season, with 157 yards in a win over the Saints and 112 yards in a victory over the Cardinals. It’s not like he’s been phased out. Sanders played 86 percent of the snaps against the Vikings and 75 percent of the snaps against the Packers. The 49ers just didn’t pass a lot. Watkins had a flukey 60-yard TD against the Titans that resulted from a defensive back falling down. Overall, Mahomes has completed just 55.6 percent of his attempts when targeting Watkins. I think Watkins is going to have a tough time getting free against the 49ers defense.
Any player to score 2-plus TDs: No (+260)
There are a lot of great players in this game: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, George Kittle. But scoring two touchdowns in a game is hard. Kelce has done it once in 18 games. Kittle hasn’t done it at all. Hill did it three times. Maybe he burns you, or someone like Williams or Raheem Mostert scores twice, but I still like the odds.
First INT by a player: Tyrann Mathieu (+650)
This is a fun long shot — especially if you’re rooting for the Chiefs. One of Mathieu’s roles in Kansas City’s defense is to be a robber, meaning a low-hole defender who reads the eyes of the quarterback and takes away in-breaking routes. When Garoppolo has thrown picks this year, it’s often been underneath defenders who have gotten him. That could mean Mathieu, who had four interceptions during the regular season.
Player to have most receiving yards: Deebo Samuel (+750)
And one last long shot. Again, I think the 49ers are going to have to throw in this game. In the second half of the season, Samuel had three games when he totaled more than 100 yards. Even though he’s a rookie, Samuel has been one of the best receivers in the NFL after the catch. And he rarely comes off the field. I think he offers good value here.
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