Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
I actually like his analysis but his conclusion just goes way the !@#$ off the rails, IMO.
Yeah, that's a really smart gameplan - crowd the line with 5, send 4 to confuse the blockign and leave a 5th as something of a spy to cover outlet passes and/or Mahomes legs. If you can get pressure, you can make things difficult. Especially if that 5th guy also has the freedom to attack if Mahomes starts to try to extend the play.
But shit, where's he get the "well it's obviously just gonna shut the Chiefs down" from? It never has before. And yes, the 49er DL is better than the Patriots but the Patriots secondary is better than the 49ers.
He had a lot of interesting information throughout that series but in the end just could not avoid a temptation to hot-take the shit out of it. Why? Couldn't tell ya.
His own analysis doesn't support his conclusion. It's just...odd.
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It's a really weird take.
1/2 of the Patriots formula was running a bunch of stunts and twists up front with the DL and crowding the line and muddying up who was coming and who was dropping. The 49ers could do some of that and drop Ford or Bosa or even Armstead into a short zone (though their 43 DEs are not as versatile as the 34 OLBs the Patriots were working with).
The other 1/2 of the formula was having the secondary skill, speed, and depth to match up across the board in man. If I remember correctly, Gilmore primarily covered Kelce man-to-man in that game, and they used the McCourtys to bracket Hill, with Jones covering Watkins and 4th CB matched up on Conley.
First problem for the 49ers is they don't have that type of talent or depth at CB.
Second problem for the 49ers is that the Chiefs have gotten a lot more dangerous at WR with the addition of Hardman. A team trying to play a coverage scheme similar to the one above would have to face the adjustment of the Chiefs putting Hardman on the field. Then either Watkins or Hardman is working solo against a 3rd or 4th coverage guy, and you likely have a single high safety. You're going to be able to force that high safety to pick one. Hardman just destroys angles (even when the pursuit is from Adoree Jackson, one of the fastest corners in the league), and Watkins is so dangerous after the catch, too.
Oh, and then you have a speedy RB out of the backfield to deal with, too. Who is certainly drawing coverage from a LB at this point.
So yeah, that Patriots model works. If you can man up and prevent quick wins from the Chiefs WR. And if you someone in the secondary who can single-cover Kelce and not get pwned. And if you have the depth to stick actual good coverage guys who can run on Watkins and Hardman.