Quote:
Originally Posted by BWillie
The argument that Alex Smith's last season stats were similar to Mahomes stats this year is a bad one IMO. It's an interesting nugget but the holes in that are that Mahomes played in 1.75 less games and had a 1,300 yd rusher in Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunt was also amazing in the passing game.
It was sooo much easier to chuck it deep that year with the presence of Kareem Hunt. You saw this offense with Kareem Hunt + Mahomes and it was frightening. Mahomes averaged 37 points a game with Kareem Hunt.
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Since the discussion revolves around just how valuable each QB might be, I think the advanced metric "PAA" is a good one. It helps show when the traditional stats might be pretty misleading.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/seaso...qbpaa/dir/desc
PAA = Points Added above Average QB
It sounds pretty similar to WAR in baseball. In 2017, Alex led the league in "traditional" passer rating. But his PAA grade was 6th in the league at +32 points above an average QB. Pretty damn good. Brady won the MVP and was graded +49 in PAA.
In 2019 season, Mahomes' traditional stats appear similar to Alex from 2017. But the PAA grade for Mahomes is +52 points, which was second in the league behind MVP Lamar Jackson at +63 points. Mahomes' 2018 season as MVP was graded +72 in PAA.
So Patrick's traditional stats were basically identical to Alex, yet his grade in this advanced metric is 60% higher than Alex (+52 vs +32)...and that was Alex's best year ever. 2019 featured Mahomes with nagging injuries, OL injuries, and so forth.
The bigger issue of course is the playoffs. Alex just could not get it done on the big stage. Mahomes is currently having an insane playoff run. They have graded him at +21 PAA through only 2 games. That's basically already tied the all-time record by Peyton Manning in 2009, except Manning needed 3 games to get to a +21 PAA grade. Russell Wilson had a freaking great performance in the playoffs and graded at +10.6 PAA for 2 games. Patrick doubles up his value. Mahomes is just off the charts good in this playoff run.