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So another piece of statistical data: The Chiefs allow about 50% of opponent's offensive drives inside the red-zone to end in a TD. Good enough for 10th most difficult RZ defense to score upon.
The Titans, OTOH, allow opposing offenses to score inside the RZ at a Texans' like clip of 68% of the time. The only team in the league that allows more TDs in the RZ is . . . the Texans at 71%.
Another area of significance is QB pressures/knockdowns. The Chiefs average 8.8% QB KDs/play (9th), while the Titans are dead last in the league at 4.5%. We send a blitz about 29%/plays, TEN does about 26%/play. But the Chiefs knock the QB down more often. This might be significant to the game, especially if we can get a two score lead and force TEN to pass more. The ability to turn Suggs, Jones and Clark loose more often per drive should be a difference-maker.
But that stat about RZ defensive efficiency might be the most important advanced stat between these two teams. Again, in the week 10 meeting, the Chiefs only converted 3 of 7 scoring drives into TDs, well below not only the team average, but also below the NFL average against TEN. If our offense can play to at least 80% of the efficiency displayed yesterday, that would be at least 2 more Chiefs TDs in that game.
Bottom line, if Andy and Pat can get our receivers to catch the ball, our offense should score a TD on about 7 out of 10 possessions. Or at about the same efficiency that they did against the Texans.
Conversely, our defense held the Titans to slightly below their season average scoring in the RZ.
Assuming the Chiefs offense doesn't start the game with a bunch of dropped passes and stalled drives, they should be able to establish a lead early in the game. That will be key to limiting Henry's impact on the game, IMO.
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