[Three7s]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

So I have a friend from college - we'll call him Dan, because that's his name - who is from St. Louis and was a big (some might have said obnoxious) Rams in college, and is also a huge Cardinals fan/homer. Dan lives in Columbia now and is not handling the Patrick Mahomes Chiefs era very well (funny how quickly he has gotten tired of hearing how good Mahomes is and how good Chiefs fans, etc.). Anyway, Dan attempts to troll me regarding the Chiefs/Mahomes from time to time and has popped up doing it again this week.

He started up a bit yesterday/today about the matchup with the Texans. So I did some statistical digging and was SHOCKED at how bad the matchup starts to look for Houston once you do that.

First, on defense... you're talking about a bottom five pass defense, that doesn't sack the passer (bottom 5 in that, too), that was dead last in the NFL in red zone percentage defense (5 percent worse than the next worst team and a whopping 27 percent worse than the median), that also was rough against the run (gave up the same YPC as the Chiefs).

Then you look at the offense, their bread and butter... and it's really just OK (probably why they were outscored on the year despite finishing 10-6). Watson holds the ball a lot, and the Texans were 30th in sack percentage as a result. Their passing offense is slightly above-average but not by much. They run the ball slightly better than they pass it, compared to the league, but are not an elite rushing team, either.

When you stack it up:
Chiefs passing defense vs. Houston passing defense: Advantage KC
Chiefs rushing offense vs. Houston rushing defense: Advantage KC
Houston passing offense vs. Chiefs passing defense: Advantage KC
Houston rushing offense vs. Chiefs rushing defense: Advantage Houston
Special teams returns: Advantage KC
Special teams kicking: Big advantage KC

The only thing that gives me a bit of a pause considering the Texans rushing the passer is that they were without Watt for most of the season. That's a pretty big deal.