[KChiefs1]

Pretty comprehensive breakdown from the Athletic.

What does the playoff picture look like going into the final two weeks of the regular season? Below you’ll find projected seedings and matchups, highlighting which teams gained and lost the most.

AFC

1. Ravens (12-2)

During their current 10-game winning streak, the Ravens have scored 40-plus on four different occasions. Lamar Jackson and his teammates are in great shape going into the final two. They go to Cleveland next week and then host the Steelers in Week 17. The Ravens need just one win to clinch the top seed because they own the head-to-head tiebreak over the Patriots. If Baltimore beats Cleveland next week, John Harbaugh will have to decide whether to rest his starters in Week 17.

2. Patriots (11-3)

Their game against the Bengals was competitive for the first half, but the Patriots eventually got five takeaways to roll to a 34-13 victory. To earn the top seed, the Patriots would have to win their final two (home vs. Buffalo, home vs. Miami), and the Ravens would have to lose their final two. The Patriots need to maintain their one-game lead over the Chiefs to get a first-round bye. If the two teams finish with the same record, Kansas City has the tiebreak on account of its head-to-head win.

3. Chiefs (10-4)

The snow seemed to have no effect on Patrick Mahomes as he threw for 340 yards in the Chiefs’ 23-3 victory over the Broncos. The Chiefs need help to earn a first-round bye, but they own the tiebreak over the Ravens and Patriots based on head-to-head victories. Kansas City would lose a tiebreak to the Texans because the Chiefs lost to Houston earlier this season. Andy Reid’s team has won four in a row and finishes the season at Chicago and home against the Chargers. If the season ended today, the Chiefs would host the Steelers in the wild-card round.

4. Texans (9-5)

Deshaun Watson found DeAndre Hopkins six times for 119 yards as the Texans got a big 24-21 victory over the Titans in Tennessee. The win gives Houston a one-game lead in the AFC South. The Texans travel to Tampa for a Saturday game in Week 16 and then host the Titans in Week 17. Even if the Texans and Titans split their head-to-head matchups, Houston will win the tiebreak on account of having a better division record. The Texans need to win one of their last two to clinch the AFC South and need help to move up from the No. 4 seed.

5. Bills (10-4)

Their defense produced five takeaways, and the offense put together a 70-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter to give the Bills a 17-10 win in Pittsburgh. Buffalo clinched a playoff berth and will most likely enter the postseason as the No. 5 seed. The Bills can win the AFC East by winning out (at New England, home vs. the Jets) and the Patriots losing out (home vs. Buffalo, home vs. Miami). If the season ended today, Buffalo would go to Houston in the wild-card round.

6. Steelers (8-6)

Their defense played well, but the Steelers managed just 229 yards of offense and couldn’t get a fourth-quarter score when they needed one, falling to the Bills 17-10. Even with the loss, the Steelers would still get into the playoffs (and travel to Kansas City) if the season ended today on account of having a better conference record than the Titans. Pittsburgh plays the Jets on the road next week and finishes the year in Baltimore against a Ravens team that might be resting its starters.

In the mix

The Titans’ loss to the Texans on Sunday was a big one. They need to win the last two (home vs. the Saints, at the Texans) and have the Texans lose their last two to win the AFC South. Tennessee can beat the Steelers out for the second wild card in two scenarios. One is to pick up a game on them in the final two weeks. The other is to jump them for the tiebreak. If both the Titans and Steelers go 1-1 in the final two and the Titans’ loss is to the Saints (not the Texans), then they would own the tiebreak over Pittsburgh and get in with both teams at 9-7.

The Colts (6-7), Browns (6-8) and Raiders (6-8) have not been mathematically eliminated but would need a lot of help to sneak in.