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Old 02-21-2019, 10:25 PM   #2677
BossChief BossChief is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chargem View Post
The thing you are forgetting is that the Chiefs have been signing guys to deals that balloon in later years, so while some players contracts are off the books, other cap hits are massively increasing. For example Sammy Watkins cap hit more than doubled.

I don't think it's whiny of people to ask you to do the research for yourself, it is actually quite fulfilling to work through it yourself and look at the options I think, but then I am a numbers guy in my day job.

Happy to do the math for you though. Per Spotrac here the Chiefs start with $25.5m to play with. If you don't want to believe either Spotrac or overthecap.com's estimates then I don't know what to tell you, they are taking the salary information from publicly available info and estimating where they need to, they are generally not out by more than a few hundred thousand.

This $25.5m figure is lower than many expected mid season. The reason for this is mainly proven performance escalators (PPE). Again worth a google but basically rookies who accrue enough snaps get a pay bump at certain milestones. As it stands, Murray, Robinson, Hill, Fuller, and probably a few I am forgetting all earned this and are looking at having their salary bumped up from 600k to $2m, which is the reason the Chiefs only have $25.5m to play with.

Getting on to the tenders, the Chiefs have the following people to tender as ERFAs, where the tender is $600k - Butker, Kemp and Hamilton. This is $1.8m of cap used. Then the RFA's, there are Lucas and T Smith. Definitely worth a google of how the tendering works but essentially if you wanted to make sure to keep either of these guys you have to tender them for $2m. I think Lucas probably gets that.

We're now at $3.8m of cap used. The latest estimate of the franchise tag cost for linebackers is $15.7m, which means if you keep Ford you have now used $19.5m of your $25.5m.

Now you have to sign your draft class. This is a little complicated to calculate because the cap is based on your top 51 roster spots, so every time you sign a draft guy you bump a guy off the bottom of the 51 spot and free up probably around $600k as you incur the cost of the rookies salary. You can look up the salaries per draft slot for rookies but of course it varies if the Chiefs trade any picks. Most people estimate about $3-4m of cap needed for signing the full class.

This takes you to $22.5m of cap used if we are generous and estimate at the $3m amount for the rookies, but that still only gives you $3m total cap space left, and most teams try to take around $5m into the season to be able to have room to make trades mid season if it would push them over the top.

And there you have it. Not a single FA signed, just Dee Ford tagged, and the Chiefs have no money for free agents.
Houston 14m
Berry 9.5m
Sorensen 2.7m
Eric Murray 2m
Ragland 1.3m

That’s about 30m in cap space...plenty to go get a couple guys that can help us.

Also, extending guys like Hill and Jones usually doesn’t effect the current years capdollars as those would likely be extensions added to the end of their current deals.

Another factor I’m sure Veach has in mind is comp picks. Guys like Morse, Conley, Nelson and Bailey will likely get nice FA deals that should get us nice comp picks in next years draft if we don’t go crazy in FA. Maybe even a third and fourth. Those are going to be important. Especially if we try to move up in this draft to get a couple coveted guys.
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