Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man
My model penalizes a team heavily for losing a first-round playoff game, puts you at around breakeven for going 1-1 in the playoffs, and really rewards you for going better than 1-1.
So yes. Next year is going to be a big breakthrough.
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Love all of this, Rain Man. Such great work.
On the playoff side of things, what do you think about a factor built in for breaking a slump. The playoff win against the Colts this year gained us 3 points that were immediately negated the following week with a playoff loss. However, most any fan would see this postseason as a positive for the organization's direction. Each sequential playoff loss could then cause a win to be worth that much more. Something like a 0.2 increase for each previous sequential loss > 1 (since you always lose the previous playoff game if you don't win the SB).
This year's Colts win would have been worth and additional factor of 0.6 (3 X 0.2) giving the team 4.8 points for the win, and a positive 1.8 for the postseason as a whole. The playoff win in Houston in 2016 broke a 7 game postseason losing streak and would have been worth 7.2 points.