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Originally Posted by FAX
I've been kinda confused about this ever since the notion came up earlier in the year ... our opponents talking about keeping the enemy offense off the field, etc. (Just like they used to talk about Brady or Rogers or Montana.)
I'm not sure there's a "right" answer, to be honest. You score when you can. Period. If that means a 12-play drive, fine. TOP is in your favor. If it means a 1-play drive, fine. Scoreboard is in your favor. The rule changes have altered the benefits of that concept a bit, however.
It might be different if you had no real confidence in your offense to be effective in a 2- or 4-minute situation. But man ... you don't take the points back when you score by accident while trying to slow down the game. No. You score when the opportunity presents itself ... because, in the Great Game, those opportunities are rare.
To me, it all boils down to what any particular team does well, how they're built, and what the situation is.
If we're playing 7 on 7, I'm going with Mahomes over Luck every time at this point. That leaves the rest of the question to be answered by the D and STs.
As for the Colts "recommended game plan", what we're seeing in the media is recency bias at its most pure. The last team to dominate their opponent is always the cat's meow. Every week. Mahomes, Tyreek, Kelce (and, hopefully, Sammy "Feets" Watkins) are dogs.
FAX
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It makes sense only in the scenario where you're conceding that the opposing offense is demonstrably better than yours (and still only with a significant caveat that I'll get to).
Let's say it's a situation where my offense will score 2/3 of the time against a 'representative' average NFL defense and yours will score 1/2 the time. Over 12 possessions, I'm scoring 8 times, you're scoring 6. Somewhere in there you have to 'make up' 2 scores. Now if you bring that down to 8 possessions, my offense will score 5 times, yours will score 4. Now you only have to 'make up' 1 score. You've increased your odds and decreased your margin by 50% by limiting possessions.
But what that analysis so often fails to take into consideration is the respective
defenses and the fact that both offenses AREN'T playing the same 'representative' average NFL defense. They're playing the other teams. So if you're the Colts, let's say that you'll concede the 2/3 vs. 1/2 offensive distinction against that represnetative squad (which isn't a given) - it's still irrelevant because the Chiefs offense is playing your defense and your offense is playing our defense. So whatever the 'representative' figure might be ceases to matter. The Colts have a better defense than we do so that gap closes to where it's probably something like 6/10 both ways.
So at that point it just doesn't matter how many possessions there are. What matters is execution. And you're going to execute better on the things you do well. So as an offense, just go out there and do what you do well. Stop trying to change things up and get out of your comfort zone. Go play your style and try to simply play it better than the opponent does.