Why would the Vikings want to let a quarterback with the ninth highest rating in the NFL hit the market?
It’s a two part answer.
First, concerns that his play would not be sustainable. Prior to joining the Vikings, Keenum had a 78.4 rating. That’s like a .220 career hitter having one season where he bats over .300.
At the NFL Combine, head coach Mike Zimmer laid it out small sample size concerns pretty clearly, saying:
“Is he the guy when he was at Houston or the Rams or is he the guy who played for us? Is it because he had a good team around him?”
There are also deeper numbers that hint at Keenum having a difficult time repeating his 2017 performance. He set career highs while under pressure and against the blitz. It’s possible he simply improved in those situations, but more likely that it was a result of small sample size success.
The were also some key areas where Keenum did not have great numbers. For example, on third-and-long and when he attempted “big-time throws.”
In situations where the Vikings had third down and more than six yards to gain, Keenum averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, which ranked at the very bottom of the NFL among starters. He also posted a 65.2 rating in those situations. Compare that to third-and-short, where the Vikings’ starter had a 107.8 rating.
PFF tracks “big-time throws,” which would be into tight windows or deep down field. Only 4.0 percent of his throws were “big-time throws,” which ranked 20th in the NFL. PFF calculated that he generated the fourth most value from “non-NFL throws” such as swing passes and screens in the league.
On passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air, he went 11-for-47 with two touchdowns, two interceptions.
He got a lot of help from receivers and running backs after the catch, ranking seventh lowest in air yards per completion. Stefon Diggs ranked No. 1 in completion percentage and QB rating on throws qualified as “contested catches.”
The takeaway being: He might not be able to keep up his 2017 results. Even if he did there might be other QBs whose play could also be elevated by the Vikings’ supporting cast.
Part 2 to the answer is the playoffs and Mike Zimmer’s nightmares.
In the playoffs, Keenum finished with the second lowest rating of any QB in the postseason. Only Tyrod Taylor was lower. While the sample size is very small in the playoffs, his performance could play into a long-term decision because he committed huge turnovers in both playoff starts.
Keenum threw one brutal interception against the Saints that nearly ended the Vikings’ season, and then a key pick-six that let the Eagles back in the NFL Championship game.
It was like Zimmer had already seen the ending.
With his sights set on a Super Bowl, the Vikings’ most influential decision maker may simply want a quarterback he can trust when his team has a 17-7 lead in the postseason. Coaches obsess over “situational football.” Well, the two playoff interceptions were the opposite of playing good situational football.
https://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2...g-case-keenum/