Thread: Chiefs Smith signs with Raiders
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Old 03-10-2016, 11:03 AM   #92
the Talking Can the Talking Can is offline
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
Is it really? Or do you really just like Lynch?

I know everyone always moans about the 'wait 'till next year' answer, but look at it objectively and isn't next year really a better time to take the QB?

What starters will need to be replaced next season? As I see it, none of them. The full allotment of starters on this team appear to be under control for the next 2 seasons at least (presuming a Berry extension and the ability to tag Poe). We'll also have our full complement of draft picks. Moreover, we'll get max benefit from the QB as well.

If we take a QB now, we'll be looking at almost certainly 2 years of his rookie contract being burned as a backup. If we take him next season, we'll probably only burn one of those years off and be able to move on from Smith in 2018 when his cap hit is $20 million and his dead money is only $3.6. That was always the most likely year to move on from him and it remains so. We would then have a full 4 seasons of the rookie QB still to use up before we have to pay him like a grown up.

We wouldn't be looking to replace starters in the 2017 draft and we'd have all of our picks plus any potential comp picks. I figure that Smith and Schwartz will offset but it's also possible that Allen's shocker of a deal offsets Schwartz, giving us a 'net' of Smith's deal and Daniel's surprisingly expensive contract. That could realistically net us 2 fourth rounders in '17.

Most of the ceteris paribus sort of factors here point to 2017 being the better year to draft a QB and by a fair amount. The only wild card truly is the available talent.

If you believe that Paxton Lynch (should he be available) is a legitimate franchise guy then you go ahead and take him. But you're not taking him because the time is ideal - you're taking him because the player is ideal and the timing is tolerable.
both

i don't care about 'burning 2 years of his contract'...if you think he's the guy, take him...sitting for 1,2,3 years makes no difference to me, acquiring him is the only thing that matters

Lynch, if he fell, would be the best raw materials in a QB to ever stare us in the face...

we can absolutely afford to take him now, we have only 1 real need, a cb...but a qbotf trumps that, if available
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