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Football Outsiders: Brock is the worst in the league at deep passes, bad pocket awareness, etc..
Osweiler's struggles with pocket awareness and sacks extend beyond Sunday's second half, too. With mostly the same surrounding playersplayers, Peyton Manning was sacked 15 times in 340 dropbacks, a rate of 4.4 percent that's roughly half Osweiler's (17 sacks in 190 dropbacks, 8.9 percent). Just as interceptions were Manning's primary weakness in 2015, sacks are one of the two main reasons Osweiler's DVOA (-4.8%) is below zero.
The other main reason is Osweiler's inability to throw downfield. As much as Manning has been maligned for his noodle-arm woes, it's actually Osweiler who has struggled the most on passes traveling 15 yards or further in the air. Amongst quarterbacks with at least 15 attempts, Osweiler has the worst DVOA in the league on deep passes.
Osweiler is close to the ultimate dinker-and-dunker. Among quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts, only Matt Ryan has thrown a lower share of his passes deep than Osweiler. While some of that is play-calling choices, those choices also reflect Osweiler's shortcomings. Even with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders at receiver, the Broncos rarely succeed on the rare occasions they do throw downfield.
It's the combination of Osweiler's tendencies to take sacks and to throw short that is so concerning. A few successful quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger have taken lots of sacks, but they were also getting the upside of big plays downfield. At the same time, other guys like Tom Brady and Matt Ryan throw short more often than average, but they also take few sacks. For this season at least, Osweiler is little more than an interception-avoider who has trouble getting through progressions, a poor man's Alex Smith.
His inability to throw deep also influences the running game, as defensive backs can play closer to the line of scrimmage. In part because of the running game's struggles, the offense has been no more efficient under Osweiler (-15.0% DVOA) than it was under Manning (-13.5%). And that leaves the Broncos with a quarterback dilemma with two unpromising options. For 2015, it might be even less likely that Osweiler develops the necessary rapid-fire decision-making skills than that Manning rediscovers just enough of his physical skills to get through a few playoff weeks.
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