Originally Posted by Saul Good
In terms of the playoffs, who ya got?
Here's how I look at it:
These teams control their own destiny.
ACC: Florida State
SEC: Mississippi State, Alabama
PAC: Oregon, Arizona State
The rest need help.
Looking at the teams listed above...
Florida State: possibly gets in with a loss, but probably not...most likely losses are Miami and the ACC championship game against Duke/Georgia Tech
Mississippi State: probably gets in with a loss...most likely losses are Alabama, Mississippi, SEC championship game against Mizzou/Georgia
Alabama: has to win out...most likely losses are Mississippi State, Auburn, SECCG against Mizzou/Georgia
Oregon: has to win out...most likely loss is the PACCCG against Arizona/Arizona State
Arizona State: has to win out...most likely losses are to Arizona or PACCCG against Oregon
Next in line:
Baylor
TCU
Ohio State
Nebraska
These teams are still candidates to make the playoffs if the following doesn't happen:
FSU wins out
Arizona State or Oregon wins out
Alabama wins out
Mississippi State loses only to Alabama
If the above scenario happens, it's
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon/ASU
4. Mississippi State
Short of that, I think Ohio State is first in. They would be 12-1, conference champions, and have solid out of conference games against Navy, Cincy, and Virginia Tech.
Next would be Baylor. They would be 11-1 and conference champions. Their out of conference schedule is horrific, but they hold the head to head over TCU.
Here is where it gets weird...
TCU gets in ahead of Nebraska if Baylor loses, but Nebraska gets in ahead of TCU if Baylor wins out. If Baylor loses, TCU is 11-1, conference champions, and has a solid out of conference game against Minnesota. If Baylor wins out, Nebraska is ahead of TCU, as they would be 12-1, conference champions, and have a solid out of conference game against Miami. Nebraska needs to win out and have all hell break loose in order to get in.
Bold prediction pulled out of my ass:
1. Florida State
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
On the one hand, I don't see Alabama winning out. On the other hand, if their loss is to MSU, I don't see MSU losing two more games...but I think Alabama wins Saturday, and I think Ole Miss wins the Egg Bowl in Oxford...and if Alabama does win Saturday, I think they are likely to win out.
Whoever wins the Alabama/MSU game will be in my prediction for the playoffs next week.
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