[duncan_idaho]

Thoughts on trade:

I talked to one of my guys last night and did not hear very many positive things about Valencia. Between his poor defense and poor attitude (It sounds like he wore out his welcome here very quickly, just like everywhere else he has played), they were looking to move him regardless.

Apparently Kratz is a Mennonite... but a Mennonite with good power who should be a solid backup catcher. So the Royals probably got better at one bench spot (C) at the expense of another.

Hendriks is probably a AAAA pitcher, but it does provide some rotation depth (better option than some of the guys at Omaha if they need a spot start).

Ultimately, though, I think this move is about the Royals' terrible roster construction. Swapping Colon for Valencia gives KC another guy on the roster who can at least legitimately play SS and gives them a chance to give Escobar a break, which he needs (don't think it's any surprise he's been slipping a bit at the plate and in the field... those are signs of either carelessness or weariness, and I'd place my money on the latter).

Hopefully, the Royals are bright enough to use Colon at 3B against LHP, but it's the Royals, so...

On Odorizzi...

The thing that's frustrating there (and that whole trade is still frustrating, though not as bad as my initial reaction to it, which involved going ballistic) is that if KC had kept him, he wouldn't be this pitcher.

I don't remember Rany talking about him as a front-end pitcher at the time of the trade, but the scouting profile on him at the time was "Solid back-end starter" not ToR guy.

The change for him has been learning to throw the same split-finger changeup as Alex Cobb, which has given him a legitimate put-away pitch. If he's in KC, he never learns that pitch, and he never becomes the force he has been of late.

I still say the balance of that trade is determined by the Royals ability to make the playoffs either this year or last. (Obviously, last year they failed). You don't make a win-now move to win 86 games and have a nice season. You don't sell off future assets as valuable as Myers and Odorizzi for that type of return.

The Royals have gotten good present value out of the deal, but if they don't make the playoffs (and is dropping a one-game playoff in Orange County really "Making" the playoffs?), it's a loss.

And as for the revisited subject of the Greinke for Cain-Escobar deal... Greinke accounted for 3.7 bWAR or or about 6 fWAR (can't find their split for his 2012 season, it probably is a little higher since he was moved at the trade deadline) in Milwaukee. Alcides Escobar produced 6.1 bWAR and 4 fWAR in that timeframe (a figure hurt by Fangraphs somehow assigning him negative defensive value in 2012).

The Royals came out pretty well in present value in that deal, just comparing those two guys over those two years. When you add the additional years of control of Escobar as well as Cain's contribution, it's really doing mental gymnastics to suggest anything other than Moore getting a very good return in a low leverage situation.

Yes, Milwaukee flipped Greinke for Jean Segura. But Segura accounted for just 0.1 bWAR and -0.2 fWAR in 2012. He was a 3.5 bWAR and 3.3 fWAR player last year due to his hot start at the plate, but has been a 0.7 bWAR and -0.3 fWAR player this season.

So while it looked like Milwaukee really crushed that Greinke deal on about June 1, 2013... the longer view tells a different story.