[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Fangraphs hates Marlon Byrd for some reason, but Baseball Reference has him as a 1.8 WAR guy,

Fine, they have Dyson at 2.4. Still much higher than Byrd given how there's another half of baseball to play.

and I trust their WAR formula more than Fangraphs.

I have no earthly idea why you keep saying that. Because of Jeremy Guthrie? Every serious mathematician focuses on repeatable experiements and datasets that hold trends. What should have happened is far more telling than what actually did. Focusing on outliers is seriously ancient thinking.

Dyson has provided a lot of value with his defense and baserunning, but at the end of the day remains a guy who can't play everyday because of his struggles against LHP and who is more likely to regress to his mean offensively given extended time ( which is .260/.330/.340). If he could post a .700 OPS with his defense and baserunning as an everyday player, that probably plays up. But just like last year, I'd expect his offensive numbers to come down given more at-bats (and more towards his career averages).

You should apply this logic to Gordon then, since he's hit the shitter offensively. 2-41 slump? As you say, you can stop runs or create them. Hopefully both. Dyson stops them - Byrd creates them. A wash.

For a team that desperately needs more offense, especially RH hitters AND power, Byrd would be a very nice fit at a very affordable cost (both in prospects and salary.) Dyson is proving to be a very reliable No. 4 OF, but he's not a guy you want to start for a winning team (especially since Cain is not going to give you the power out of RF that you really want).

It's a good move for next season, too, when Byrd would provide a very affordable option who can be swung between RF, LF and DH.

Here's the meat of the argument: creating value by replacing X player. And that X is clearly Fat-Ass at DH. Get rid of Dyson and you gain nothing. Get rid of Fat-Ass, and you probably pick up 2 wins. Is that enough? It might be.