[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

I tend to agree with you, but from Olney's standpoint, he was asked about the Tigers declining and he thought they still had enough, even without Iglesias ... said Verlander was looking great, their defense is better, they've got Nathan, etc. He thought Smyly would replace Fister's production. We'll see.

I think they still are the favorite and still have enough to win. But I don't think they're a club that should win 100 games again.

We were talking about this on the scout.com board today. Here are my thoughts on the Tigers and their offseason changes:

It's not just about Kinsler for Fielder. It's about Castellanos, Kinsler, SS scrap heap contingent, Smyly as SP, Joba Chamberlin and Joe Nathan, vs. Prince Fielder, Infante, Peralta/Iglesias, Fister, Joquin Benoit and Drew Smyly

We can say with certainty that Kinsler improves Detroit's defense at 2B. He is a very good defender. But from an offensive standpoint, Kinsler had a lower BA, OBP and SLG than OMAR INFANTE last year

So, it's a decent bet Kinsler won't even give Detroit the offense Infante provided a year ago (considering his career performance away from Arlington). Castellanos will NOT give them the offensive production they got from Fielder. The SS mess will be less productive offensively than Peralta and Iglesias (who was unsustainably good a year ago, but still productive). (And not as good defensively)

Smyly is a good prospect, but expecting 4 WAR out of him in his first go as a SP is a pretty high expectation. Filling Fister's production is a tough thing to do. ANd in the pen... the Tigers bullpen might actually be WORSE. Sure, it's more stable in the 9th with Nathan, but Benoit was very good in that role in the second half. It's worse in the 7th and 8th innings than when Smyly and Benoit/Jose Veras were holding down those spots.

Overall, the Tigers offense is most likely going to take a step back. Just too many regression spots, and not enough potential "bump" spots to balance that out. Torii Hunter is unlikely to improve. Miguel Cabrera, same thing. Austin Jackson was down in 2013 from what he'd been in 2012, but he played to career norms. I think he is, basically, what we saw last year.

And then there's the pitching staff. It's possible than Sanchez and Scherzer are just 6 win pitchers now. But is that more likely than each taking a step back after a career year? I'd place my bet on the latter.

I expect Verlander to pop back up to his usual levels this year, so that balances out regression from one of those guys. But probably not if BOTH regress a bit.

Detroit is still the favorite and should be. But that's a team that came back to the pack over the offseason rather than moving further out in front. They are not a slam dunk to run away with things, by any means.