Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
2) Players who consistently outperform their peripheral stats. Since becoming an Oriole in 2007, Guthrie has outperformed his FIP by somewhere between 0.75 and 0.25. All the projections just drop him in at 4.75-5.00 ERA, but odds are good he outperforms that significantly.
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Someone should probably study this, I think this is one thing the SABR folks can probably figure out. The question: "how many years do you need to outperform FIP until we can reasonably believe they will continue to outperform?" One or two years is a fluke. What about 5+ years? For all we know, that could also be a very unlikely fluke, we were lucky, and we're just wrong about 2014.
They should be able to perform some kind of cohort analysis where you gather players in MLB history that have outperformed for 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, all the way through 6 and 7 years, and figure out what they did the following year. Players who outperformed for 1 year would be expected to generally crash back to earth, but what about players who keep doing it? (we don't need to study players who underperform, they just wind up demoted and out of baseball)