Quote:
Originally Posted by the_spatula
PECOTA has us finishing under .500. What gives?
|
Our defense last year was incredible, as measured by objective statistics. It contributed about 5-6 extra wins, so if we had a league average defense, we would have struggled to get over .500.
Projections (like PECOTA) can not project defense, so they basically assume everyone's defense is average and project batting and pitching. That is usually fine for most teams, but if you think your team's defense will be either horrid or elite, then the projections might be off.
Our defense had better be elite again in 2014, because even if our offense takes a big step forward like we hope, it won't matter if our defense regresses to merely average, because our starting pitchers won't blow teams away.