[duncan_idaho]

Stealing some work from El Chup on the Scout board. Baseball Pro today released its future tool grades for its top 101 prospects. Some pretty interesting stuff here. Note: They didn't list tools that are below average. Royals guys:

2-8/20-80 grading scale:

80: Generational skill (truly elite... only a handful of players realize this level.)
70: Plus-plus (consistent All-Star level tool)
60: Plus (above average)
55: You'll sometimes see this midway point grade, usually on younger guys
50: MLB average
40: Below average
30: Well below-average
20: Not worthy of playing pro ball

12. Ventura:
FB 8 (one of the very few 8/80's tools with that grade in the entire list)
CH 6
CB 6

29. Mondesi:
Run 6
Glove 6
Arm 6
Hit 5.5

34. Zimmer:

FB 7
CB 7
SL 6
CH 5

46. Almonte:
CH 7
FB 6
CB 5

78. Manaea:
FB 7
CH 6
SL 6

96. Dozier
Power 6
Arm 6
Run 5
Glove 5

99. Bonifacio:
Arm 7
Power 6
Hit 5

What does it mean? Looking at it, I know that the "best system ever" in 2011 had 6 pitchers in the top 100. But some key distinctions between that group and this one:

1) These pitchers have higher ceilings. You're talking about 3 guys (Zimmer, Manaea, Ventura) who all have true ToR potential. Vs. really just Mike Montgomery in that 2011 group.

2) This group is a ittle more of a known factor at the top. The 2011 pitchers didn't have anyone beyond AA. Ventura has dominated both AA and AAA and even MLB in his limited action there. Zimmer also has had a dominant period at AA.

3) When matching them up, the Royals have 3 top 50 pitchers in this year's ranking. The 2011 ranking had 4 guys (Dwyer, Duffy, Odorizzi, Jeffress) in the bottom 1/4 of the list. Those players tend to bust at higher rates (like a 4-star football recruit vs. a 5-star, or 1st round pick vs. 3rd round pick).

Ventura vs. Montgomery: Edge Ventura. More proven, more elite stuff. Elite fastball with plus curve and change (that could become plus-plus with more refinement?)? Sick. Monty also was shut down in 2011, the start of his slide into irrelevance.

Lamb vs. Zimmer: Edge Zimmer. Similar ceilings. Zimmer's stuff advantage balanced out by Lamb's handedness and pitchability/command. But Zimmer's dominant stretch at AA (small sample, but ... 4 starts, 18 2/3 IP, 27 K, 1.93 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 5 BB) is better than Lamb's mixed success at that level in 2011.

Dwyer vs. Almonte: Edge Dwyer. Both two pitch guys, Dwyer had been good at AA at this point, trumping Almonte's sllightly higher ceiling.

Manaea vs. Duffy: Edge Manaea. I know Manaea hasn't thrown a pitch as a pro player, but his upside is so high, and Duffy was a question mark at this point, too.

I'm going to stay on board the Manaea bandwagon. Really think we're talking about a kid who is a consensus top 15 prospect at this time next year, potentially helping the rotation in 2015. Think Lucas Giolito type jump. His hip injury was something that they knew about and were never concerned with. Shouldn't be a long-term issue at all.