Quote:
Originally Posted by tomahawk kid
Really feel like they're one more power bat and another solid rotation arm away from making a run at this division.
As it stands today, I think they're just good enough to NOT be good enough (same as last season).
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They need to improve by 3-5 wins to get into reasonable range for making the playoffs/winning a wild card spot.
I'm not CONFIDENT they've done that, but I could see how they have.
According to pythag, their record was very close last year to what it should have been. Final numbers were within a half win of what they should have been.
The offense should be improved, and has potential to be improved by a lot. IF Aoki does what he has done the past two years as the leadoff man and Alex Gordon slugs .450 again (his average over the past 3 years), the Royals HAVE added a power bat to the middle of the lineup (unconventionally). A bounce back year from Butler improves the offense. And it's not unreasonable to expect Hosmer and Perez to improve a little bit. Just a quick glance at offensive projections, based on established guys performing to norm/young guys taking small steps:
Aoki - . 285/.355/.400 (30 SB, 90 R)
Infante - . 290/.330/.420
Hosmer - .300/.360/.500 (24 HR, 35 2B)
Butler - .300/.370/.450 (19 HR, 40 2B)
Gordon - .290/.360/.460 (20 HR, 40 2B)
Sal Perez - .290/.330/.440 (15 HR)
Moustakas - .250/.300/.400 (15 HR)
Cain - .260/.320/.400
Escobar - .270/.300/.370 (30 SB - these are his numbers hitting 9th for KC in his 3 years here)
That's maybe not a flashy offense, but it's a deeper and more consistent one that should score more runs.
They also have improved by leaps and bounds in what they'll get offensively out of RF and 2B. Whole lineup should be much deeper and more dangerous.
The key question is going to be the pitching staff. They're likely not going to get as much out of the No. 2 spot in the rotation as a year ago, unless Vargas has a real renaissance. If they can get MORE out of the 4/5 spots in the rotation (and avoid 33 starts of high-5 ERA performance like they got a year ago), it can bridge some of the gap at No. 2.
And the bullpen... it's not fair to expect it to be QUITE as dominant as it was a year ago, but it still should be one of the 2-3 best units in baseball.
Add it all up... and I think you can make a good case for a Royals team that, at its best, could win 90-92 games (and maybe even jump up a little more if it has some positive luck).
No guarantees. Obviously. But it's much easier to make a case for this team winning 90+ games because it has many fewer holes.