Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
The Luke Hochevar FanGraphs thinks exists in terms of effectiveness and value does not exist in the real world.
I like a lot of what FG does and think their PitchFx is one of the coolest, most reliable advanced analysis tools out there regarding pitchers.
But their formula for figuring pitcher WAR and value is ****ed. FanGraphs had Wade Davis as nearly a 2 WAR player this past season.
As far as paying market value for production... it depends on what you're getting and how easily alternatives can be found.
The more rare the commodity and harder it is to find, the more you can afford to pay fair market value for it, based on WAR.
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The one critique I do have is that they give undue credit to starters, but the data does show crappy starters can be effective in the pen while the converse is far more rare. I'd have no doubt Guthrie could be a 30+ save guy but I'm doubtful Davis can put up Guthrie numbers in the rotation. I do think Hoch can though. Oakland would never shell out $10m for those two to sit in the pen tossing 140 total innings. Why do we?