NYT Playoff Simulator is up for 2016
 

I don't know about you guys, but I loved this thing last year. It's similar to cdcox's old forecasting software and is lots of fun for seeing how our chances at the playoffs shift in various scenarios.

League-wide view:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f-picture.html

Chiefs view:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f-picture.html

Here's the current odds of various scenarios:

http://i.imgur.com/p9OrCjE.png

I also love having it as a rooting guide each week. Most of the time, the important games are obvious, but it's nice to have confirmation on which games impact our chances the most:

http://i.imgur.com/5aEy4u6.png

So in short, we want the Ravens to beat the Dolphins next week and the Broncos to lose. The Raiders are a strange one. In terms of our chances of MAKING THE PLAYOFFS, we actually want the Raiders to beat the bills (though obviously we'll be aiming our sights higher than just getting in).

This team is winning the goddamn division.

I tried to go conservative and had us dropping @ ATL, OAK, and DEN while winning TEN and SD.

That had us at 50% to get the 5 seed, 42% to get the 6 and 6% chance at missing the playoffs entirely.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...8ad3ed451e.jpg



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Yeah, if we can win 3 of the next 5, we're in. 2 of the next 5, and we're most likely in. 1 of the next 5, and we're most likely out.

Not a bad situation to be in.

538's model has a long tail and still thinks the Raiders are mediocre. Unless we can get them to drop a game they'll be favored in, it's gonna be tough for us to win the division.

But really, it'll most likely come down to the game at Arrowhead.

No way Oakland goes into Denver and beats a healthy Denver team.

Then they have to beat us at Arrowhead.

Took some screen shots for quick rooting interests in weeks 13-16:

Chiefs to get the #1 seed.
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...269eea2ecc.pnghttp://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...2072174958.pnghttp://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...ba907c4ebf.pnghttp://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...ddaaa8bb17.png

The deeper the color the more important the outcome. Obviously the Chiefs need to keep winning.


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Hopefully the Bills will fight for a playoff spot and pull off a win against the Raiders.

The reality is that we're absolutely in control of our destiny from here on out.

We're unbeaten in the division, have won the 2 toughest division games on the road, including head-to-head against both of the other contenders who have to come to our crib in December.

Then again, we lost to the Bucs at Arrowhead too.

The Bucs are a good team, so is San Diego and Ten. We aren't going to win out.

If they get healthy, sure, why not.

That's a pretty big if.

honestly, anything can happen in this division. It was the same for our division in nfc west. AZ/SF/SEA all had strong teams. Any three could win the division still and they would deserve it. Great division and football is getting exciting. Honestly, this year is way better than last years.