Looks like we’re paying Bolton and letting Trey walk
 

Per Jeremy Fowler

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="zxx" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/idqDMmc5xo">pic.twitter.com/idqDMmc5xo</a></p>&mdash; Matt Lane (@Matty_KCSN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Matty_KCSN/status/1856723877910483172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Hopefully Bolton doesn’t rape us.

I think this is the most likely outcome unfortunately. Trey is gonna get $21 million APY.

Hoping we can keep Hopkins, Hardman and Juju on fair deals, maybe Uche if he’ll agree to a fair deal and extend Thuney’s deal to free up cap space and push that can down the road a bit.

Hicks can replace Reid. Wanya will likely replace Trey and we’ll look for a LT somewhere.

I've largely been at "Let them both walk..." and haven't really seen much to change my mind in that regard.

The IOL hasn't been as stout in pass pro as I'd like all year. And ultimately you can't just continue to bring back more expensive versions of the same team.

If that means not having the highest paid IOL in football and a MLB who has some limitations (though honestly, I think the league is coming TOWARDS his play style, not away from it), so be it.

If that money is reallocated to pass catchers and/or OT, then that's the way it ought be done.

Same.

I love Bolton. I don't love keeping Bolton at the expense of other dudes

I hope there is a case where Smith's condition affords us a discount, but being there has been absolutely no word about it, that's a pipe dream.

Thanks dudes. Get the money.

Yeah, **** all that. If Smith wants to be the highest paid G in the NFL let him do it elsewhere.

Well we most certainly are not losing Thuney and Trey in the same offseason. That’s why I think something will be worked out with Thuney to lower that cap hit.

You can't make him highest paid. It's too much with the highest paid center already.

I said all along, if he wants to take the same deal Creed got, hell yeah. If you want the extra few million a year which he has earned, go for it.

But don't bitch when it's another L'Jarius Sneed situation and football isn't fun anymore.

Smith at a 'discount' is still $18 million.

There's just not a happy ending to be found here, IMO.

I think we just have to continue to churn and burn on the IOL. We have an anchor tenant there now and a guy who re-set the salary market (by a lot) for the position. And hell, we didn't even get him signed that LONG in so doing. We paid a ton for Creed.

Earn your money, bucko. If you need 2 All-Pro caliber OGs alongside you to perform, you're a problem.

I don't think that's the case.

I think you have to presume that job is Nourzad's to lose, especially now that Morris appears to be as close to a long-term option at LT as we have. Now if we reallocate the money we could spend on Smith to a strong veteran LT, that would free Morris up to move inside where I think he'd be a real asset.

But none of 'em asked me...

Personally I think Kingsley should be the replacement for Smith. Kingsley is very athletic running forward out going lateral. But he really struggles going backwards/kick stepping. As a guard he wouldn’t have to worry about this as much. At 6’5” 326 he brings quality size and strength to the guard spot too. Very similar to Smith but more athletic.

We would definitely need to bring in a tackle next year whether it’s the draft or free agency. But Morris coming back gives us an option and swing tackle at worst. Ethan Driskell is a guy the coaches are very high on and talked about needing to add weight and strength. Maybe he is an option next year?

I'd hate to see us pay Bolton anything north of $15m AAV and I consider myself a Bolton truther.

But there's just too many games where a team's scheme totally ****s him up. On the flip side, some schemes he seems to totally dominate.

If you pay him, it's obviously because Spags thinks he brings an intangible value that can't be replaced in an offseason. Like wasn't it the Super Bowl or AFCCG when Spags said he made a check to some play and it was a critically good outcome? I think the McDuffie pressure against Purdy. IDK, but that staff happens.

Trey is probably gonna turn into a 3rd round comp pick in 2026.

Those come in handy as you turn this thing over post-2022 draft class.

Oof. Yeah. Out on 18M per.

I was thinking like ... 8. Which was always a pipedream.

Hat tip, Trey.

ESPN wrote about this today in their Top 2025 FAs List.

They suggested we could keep Bolton for a 3/yr $40m contract, similar to Queen’s.

That’s not too bad.

I’d do my best to keep Trey and if Omenihu looks like the same awesome rusher he was last year I’m giving him an extension with a raise.

He’s way more valuable than Nick and he’s only 27

Way too early to speculate. In Veach We Trust!

Hmmm

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I&#39;m feeling like making a spreadsheet to explain this, so here it is.<br><br>This shows that they would not pay all of those salaries at once if they kept Trey. <br><br>The uplift on spending on the Oline would only go up ~$5m if they kept Trey. Most of the Chiefs contracts work this way. <a href="https://t.co/GTxUukJ2Gm">https://t.co/GTxUukJ2Gm</a> <a href="https://t.co/MegbKUbSXA">pic.twitter.com/MegbKUbSXA</a></p>&mdash; Conner Christopherson (@Conner_DKC) <a href="https://twitter.com/Conner_DKC/status/1856882058062434717?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 14, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Would hate to have to replace Thuney, Smith & Morris in the same offseason… leaving Creed and Taylor.

Especially when Mahomes’ confidence is seemingly tied to the amount of pressure he gets.

Willie Gay is a free agent this year, right?

Maybe they move Tranquill to Mike and bring Gay back at Will.

Oh yeah I would totally do that. Not sure Spags will let it happen though unfortunately

Yes, please. Work your magic Veach!!!

ESPN had WR Higgins over Trey Smith as the #1 FA… I just don’t see it, Higgins isn’t that special, his numbers aren’t that great IMO. Trey Smith is the #1 NFL FA this year.

how bad is the Franchise Tag on a guard?

It's basically tackle-grade.

I think you have to spend resources to trade up and get a LT in the 1st round.

Move Morris to RG. Kingsley is your swing.

Pay Bolton, bring back cheaper impact players like Omenihu (who I think will be manageably cheap) and Brown. Drop a resource or three for a RB, and keep that secondary bodied out.

That should keep the team Super Bowl competitive.

Wow. Verderame said Veach made a huge push to sign Trey Smith in the Summer. Really tried to get that done but couldn’t.

Also said they tried talking to Bolton and he didn’t want to talk about an extension. Wtf LMAO

I bet he tried to give Trey and Creed twin deals.

Probably tried to get Bolton on a discount after injury-riddled 2023 season. Probably gonna turn into another OBJ situation.

I hope we can keep some of em but at the same time I really DGAF. The money would be nice to have too cause I am sure there are numerous FAs who would love to come play for the Chiefs. Or, we can focus on retaining the 2022 draft class.

Either way, we are gonna be acquiring some more nice young cheap pieces next draft that we need.

I was wondering if he could make that transition...I have no idea and you hate to have drafted an OG in the 1st, but it beats drafting a swing tackle in the first.

I'm pretty happy moving on from Bolton. When he's on form he's a great run stuffer but he'll never be an elite coverage LB. I'd love to keep Smith, I think he's worth the money, just not to us. It'll be too much.

That said, one of these drafts is going to be a bad one. Or a below average one. It happens. It's entirely possible it's this last one and we're back in for WR and LT as well as looking to replace these guys and others. We're going to either need another stellar draft like the 2022 class, or get some real bargains in FA.

And I wouldn't bring Omenihu back, especially if he asks for more.

Completely agree with this.

Ok, bottom line, did we not see this coming? We can't keep them all and the future is upon us. It is what it is. In Veach I trust and this organization will figure it out but we have to be realistic here and understand that change is inevitable. I think in the long run we will be ok - WE are Chiefs Kingdom and will prevail! :thumb:

Kelce
Chris Jones
Thuney
D. Hop
Hunt
JuJu

Am I missing anyone? Change will have to happen and this organization is setup to do just that.

Coming around to this but I would think that using that money on a good pass rusher is needed along with OT and pass catchers

That's a pretty massive backfire by Bolton if true, because he's been exposed a bit in the absence of Gay.

So, why couldn't we tag and trade Trey, for a Sneed-like 3rd in 2025, or 2026?

I'd say... let them both walk.

Spend the money in FA at positions that make a bigger impact.

There are some free agent tackles that I would try to pay if given the chance over Trey Smith. Cam Robinson, Garrett Bolles, Jedrick Wills, Ronnie Stanley, Joe Noteboom.

There are pass rushers I'd focus on first, too. If Omenihu looks recovered or close to it, I'd prioritize signing him over signing Bolton for sure. Josh Sweat would be an interesting addition if he hits the market. Etc.

You aren't getting a 3rd back for him when he will be on a $23-25m-ish tag.

You might however get a 3rd round comp pick if he walks.

We need to let both walk.

Bolton has taken a half step back and unfortunately needs to be in the Top 3 of his position to justify a second contract. I recommend re-watching our 2022-2023 playoff games. Bolton was everywhere, and I mean everywhere. I had forgotten just what a constant force he was on nearly every play. Since his wrist injury, he occasionally has put together a game like that, but it seems like he might just be a half-step more timid compared to his 2022 form. I love Bolton, but I do not think his position (even if he’s in the Top 10 at the position) justifies a second contract.

But, Spags really, really values the QB of his defense (it’s why we played an unplayable Hitchens a season too long), so we’ll see how it shakes out.

Don't forget that he had Gay running shotgun and taking the sideline to sideline responsibility then. Now he has Tranquil who's a very smart player but a clear step (probably two steps) slower and less athletic than Gay.

Losing Willie has exposed Bolton, IMO. I'd be fine letting Bolton walk, signing Gay in the off-season for the Will role and putting Tranquil at Mike.

I’m still bewildered about how we handled Gay. He was a pretty big cog in our gameplan against significant rivals (the Ravens and Bills) and that alone seems like it should have justified us matching NOLA’s deal with him. NOLA did have him as a healthy scratch early in the year, so maybe there really is more than meets the eye there?

He's a freelancer and sometimes a bit of an idiot.

Those guys drive coaches crazy. Because they believe that any breakdown in a defense must be execution rather than scheme.

So when they see a guy leave the scheme to make a play, it barely registers. But when that guy fails to execute within the scheme and the defense fails, they don't think of it as the flipside of the coin, they think of it as proof that said player isn't an asset.

I could see how he could rely on his talent to cover up those lapses, especially to fans who know none the wiser.

It’s crazy that it takes a complete unhinged maniac like Todd Haley to straighten some of those guys out, but damn it if DJ didn’t transform into an elite backer after a year of being on Haley’s shitlist.

When making tough decisions in life, I like to set up a decision matrix. It has helped me make important choices when it comes to jobs, relationships, finances, etc...

• First, I write out all possibilities on one axis.
• Second, on the other axis, I list out all of the factors/variables that I should take into account.
• Third, I weight each factor. For example, if the factor is very important, I give it a 1-15 score. If the factor is not very important, I give it a 1-5 score. For the others, I give it a 1-10 score.
• Last, I go through the rubric and assign each intersecting box a score.

At the end I tally the scores up, and more times than not, the correct decision is in front of me.


Possibilities to consider:

Option 1: Re-sign both
Option 2: Re-sign Trey, Let Bolton Walk
Option 3: Re-sign Bolton, Let Trey Walk
Option 4: Re-sign Trey, Tag/keep Bolton
Option 5: Re-sign Bolton, Tag/keep Trey
Option 6: Let both walk
Option 7: Tag & Trade Trey, Let Bolton Walk
Option 8: Tag & Trade Bolton, Let Trey Walk
Option 9: Tag & Trade Trey, Re-sign Bolton
Option 10: Tag & Trade Bolton, Re-sign Trey

Factors to consider:

- Who has the most upside remaining over the life of a new deal?
- Who has the most impact on future seasons' performance (accounting for their quality of play, their leadership, their intelligence, their athleticism, their positional value)?
- Who is the most reliable from a health standpoint over the life of a new deal?
- Who is the most replaceable (accounting for current roster, FA, or draft)?
- Who is the most affordable?
- Who is the most flexible when it comes to a team-friendly deal structure?
- What is the impact on the ability to retain other players who need contracts (McDuffie, etc...)


If I don't like the output it gives me, I start to see what other reasonable elements (that I control) I can add to the options, and run it through the rubric.

Example: "Restructure X other player + Option 1,2,3..."

If I still don't have a reasonable output, it usually means I need more information, which changes the question, so I do more rubrics.

"If I'm able to sign X player from FA before I make this decision, how does it change the score?"

"If I'm able to draft X player before I make this decision, how does it change the score?"

It's not exactly a secret he isn't the brightest bulb, yeah? Dude managed to get a 4 game suspension fighting a vacuum cleaner.

I’d be okay if he fought a dishwasher if he’d agreed to a 1 yr/6 million deal with us.

I think Spags would rather do it with a safety in the Sorensen mold for that role. Total speculation, but I'm guessing he thinks it is easier to make a safety do LB things than an LB cover space like a safety.

Hicks, Cook, Conner I think is the goal.

Again, total speculation.

This is the way. I'm fully on board with that plan.

Bring Willie back! Tell Nick to enjoy making a lot of money for a bad team with cap space and thank him for the memories. Let Tranquill run the middle.

Draft to back fill and try to draft more athleticism this time.

Let them both walk.

Bolton is a major liability in pass coverage.

Smith is inconsistent in pass protection.

Neither will be worth the coin long-term.

I mostly agree with Verderame’s thoughts on this. Here’s his plan:

-Let Bolton walk
-re-sign Trey
-Extend McDuffie
-Work on extending Watson, Chenal and Cook to reasonable deals
-Move Kingsley to G and continue developing as a backup)
-Wanya at swing tackle
-Do whatever possible to move up for a LT in the draft
-wait and see on Karlaftis. Depends on price. If a fair deal like 4/$60 million is agreed to then keep him. If he wants the bag let him walk.

Don’t agree with all of that but I do think they need to spend the cap on key guys from the
2022 class. McDuffie, Chenal and Watson.

Those three have proven their value here and need to stay. They’re young and ascending.

We need to pay them

Aren't we likely to cut Thuney this offseason? If Smith and Thuney exit, what's the backup plan?

Right.

With players like this who do have semi-big holes in their game, I think you take the Belichickian path of offering them what is a fair contract relative to their skill set, and if they can get a lot more money elsewhere, you wish them well in their future endeavors.

But you only pay premiums for guys who do not have holes in their game. McDuffie being the prime example upcoming. Everyone else, make a fair offer and let the chips fall where they may. This isn't an easy place to leave for players even when there's a raise waiting elsewhere. A lot of guys are gonna come crawling back within 2-3 years.

I'd also pay a premium for outside free agents who are elite talents while finding the next Trey Smith, Nick Bolton, etc through the draft.

I agree with everything except the Trey part. It truly does depend on the cost.

But I can't pay a guy $20m + to play guard and then have games like last Sunday where he is hindering the offense as a pass blocker.

A play here or there, like Joe Thuney has been for four years, fine. Take the money. But a whole game of ass? No way. Use that on another player.

I'd rather bring Bolton back than Smith. And again - I don't want EITHER of them at their likely price point.

He's just a questionable fit here.

I'd let Trey walk and sign Bolton. Easy choice.

Yeah I think Bolton is gonna stay mostly bc of Spags. I just pray to God the contract set up is worth it.

I think at worst Andy could snag a starting caliber RG in rd 2 if he really feels he needs to. But I do think Wanya or Nourzad could play there next year. Just can’t pay Trey.

They need to keep Hollywood too IMO. It’s beneficial to him and he wasn’t paid that much anyway. Really need to keep one of Omenihu/Uche as well

This. If Bolton was playing lights out like he was, it would be different.

Yeah, Bolton is a really good player, I dunno what the issue with keeping him is.

I'd also not be interested in keeping Karlaftis, especially after I trade for Parsons this offseason.

For about 6 weeks, he was.

I'll say this, we have possibly the best run defense in football. And his strength is playing the run. Don't you think he has a LOT to do with that?

And more teams seems willing to try to beat you on the ground than in previous years.

If I had to keep one, Bolton would be the one I keep, no question. I just think I'd rather that money be spent elsewhere at this point. Because without a strong complementary pass rush, teams just aren't going to bother trying to run the football against us. They'll beat us to death in the air.

6 of 1 half dozen of the other.

When we were shit vs the run, we longed for a good run d.

I think it's easier to build a good run d though for cheaper, but shit I dunno.

I'd say Bolton's Value to this team out weighs Treys. Treys not a perfect fit but will be somewhere more committed to the run. Bolton while a good player has made a lot of his hay on run blitz this year. Leo has been a big part of his success too. I think Tranquil could take over without issue. I like the idea of bringing Willie back in that scenario. Don't pay impact money to non impact positions. Use that money in FA.

If the choice came down between giving Bolton or McDuffie a second contract, what would y’all decide?

McDuffie and it isn't really close. I'd take McD over Trey and Bolton if that was the option.

We might need Trey more than we want to admit.