The Cap Situation & Dee Ford
 

So, questions on the cap...

OTC has our current Cap at $26,172,985.

The current estimated Draft Reserve is $2,871,000 (This is $6,471,000 less the no-effect portion for replacing top-51 of $3,600,000).

League minimums for ERFAs on the team now is $570,000. If we expect included bonus money of $30,000 (may be up to $90,000), those tenders would be $600,000 each for Butker, Hamilton, Kemp and Dieter, totalling $2,400,000.

The minimum you can retain Jordan Lucas for is $720,000 with up to $90,000 in bonus money, which would put him at $810,000 (or less depending...)

All of these transactions, in total amount to $6,081,000, reducing total cap space to $20,091,985.

The expected franchise tag for Ford is $15,777,000. This would reduce total cap space to $4,314,985 which is about the bare minimum KC tends to roll with into the proceeding year.

If KC retains the minimum number of players and franchises Ford, they cannot make any other moves that affect top-51 money.

The reality is, KC cannot afford to simply franchise Ford and play the 2019 season without some other moves involved. They must either tag and trade Ford or make some substantial cuts which may include Houston or Berry. Obviously, they can make low-key cuts like Sorensen and Murray but they won't have enough money to get substantially better players at the position.

Just thought I'd share the situation as about as clearly as I can.

Yea I think it’s pretty obvious at this point that it’s either Ford or Houston.

I think Houston is gone based on the difference in how Veach talked about the two.

yup. that's why I've been saying to tag, trade, and cut all dead weight and over expensive always injured guys.

Cut Houston and post June 1st cut berry gets you 50 million to work with

Wow! That's encouraging. :clap: I'd vote for that. We talk about fear of taking chances on here all the time. I think Houston is the safe route but super expensive. High floor and low ceiling that will steadily decline.
His acceleration just isn't there anymore. We've got to take a chance and get younger at that position or test the free agent market like the pats do to get quality contributors. That kind of cost for the contribution doesn't make sense.

Gotta draft a pass rusher early this Spring since Houston and Ford aren’t long for KC. The best thing in the league is a QB on a rookie contract. The 2nd best thing has to be a pass rusher on a rookie contract.

Yes, in a sense. It really gives you about $23.55 million to work with to sign free agents if tagging Ford. That's a good sum, at minimum 2 upper echelon free agents and 3 if you wanted but I'd lean towards 2 with a bunch of mid-level guys thrown in.

If the team can cut Berry, then the way I feel about Houston is you approach him and you talk to him about the future. One is, we can cut you right now and you can go see what you can get on the market and maybe you'll make $32m over the next 3 years or maybe you won't. Or, we can take your next 2 seasons and we spread them out over 3. We take the 15.25m you're set to make in 2019 and we make that a signing bonus and we take the 17.00m you're set to make in 2020 and we spread that out over the 3 years as your salary. We'll fully guarantee your 2019 portion of that salary. Houston now makes a guaranteed $20.92m by carving up his old contract (nearly the same as his total cap hit this season) and his cap hits are $16.6m in 2019, 12.75m in 2020, and 10.75m in 2021. He's worth that, in my opinion. That saves 4.5m against the cap in 2019 and 6.25m against the cap in 2020. You'd retain your premier edge player for the next 3 seasons. The savings you'd get between that restructure and Berry being cut is enough to carry a couple of mid-tier free agents.

Tag and trade Ford with your scenario. Pick up an extra draft pick or two. Figure out who to re-sign. Be back in control of the cap situation going forward.

This again? It's not happening.

Anyhow, another issue with Dee Ford is he'll probably file a grievance to be tagged like a DE with the base change and will probably get it. Going off the projected tag numbers I've seen for 2019, his cap hit will be 17.3 million.

The Chiefs cap space will be basically non-existent if they keep both Houston and Ford on the tag. I think at least one of them will be in a different uniform this season.

I like your thinking, and really, of the two I'd prefer to keep Houston as he's a better overall football player. BUT the problem is, I think...that Houston is not a linebacker in this 4-3. He's a DE. So is Ford. On top of that, I expect they would both be RDE's. No way you want Houston at SAM he'll be in coverage most of the time. That's a poor use of his skillset. Know what I mean? I also think LDE is not a great spot for him, he's too light to be there. Speaks is built for that.

I'd prefer to do Houston's deal something like you've described, and tag and trade Ford. I don't know if that's what Veach is wanting. I think Houston lined up next to Jones would just crush. I think Ford will get neutralized by just running right at him.

yes, I agree either way. One of those first 3 picks needs to be a DE/Edge.

My personal favorite is Jaylon Ferguson, the all-time leading NCAA sack leader.

Houston and Berry getting cut is the most logical and probable scenario.

Draft Edge and get a cheaper tier FA a la Vinny Curry.

yeah.

I'd rather just tag and trade Ford too, while we're at it. But this is the most likely.

says you and like one other guy here on this board and not one single person anywhere in any media outlet, be it ESPN or any podcast or in any print media who have discussed the situation.

NOBODY, not a single person anywhere has said a word about Berry not being able to be cut due to the haglund's heel situation.

So until SOMEONE DOES, somebody, somewhere, who's job it is to cover such things, I think it's fair game for speculation.

It’s a HUGE dropoff to go from Houston and Ford to a Vinny Curry/Speaks/rookie combination. Like big enough to probably wipe away any Super Bowl aspirations.

Gotta keep one of them IMO until you have more sure things behind them on the depth chart.

well, I think if you let both go, you can get say...close to Houston level production but from a proper proven vet DE for less than you'd have to pay Ford. So rather than a Vinny Curry type in that situation I'd be looking at another level up at DE, but an older vet, probably past their huge money days but still effective.

At any rate, if Houston's agent is saying they won't restructure, then he's just gone period. You can't pay him $21 million.

Ford on the tag is real expensive when he's such a liability against the run, but so be it.

Houston’s annual contract average is just over $16.8 million, but his cap number is over $21 million for this season. Joel Segal is probably confident he can get Houston a 2-3 year deal at $17 million plus instead of restructuring with KC. The Chiefs will inevitably eat some dead money but Houston’s cut savings are the most realistic for freeing up money for this FA period. If Berry is cut post June 1st, his cap savings can be rolled and used to offset extensions for the likes of Hill/Jones.

Ford on the tag is not the worst thing for KC. No long term commitment, and he has to play well again to get a long term deal. He gets a one year trial in the 4-3, and I anticipate the Chiefs to add depth to the pass rush either in the draft or FA to hedge against Ford moving into 2020.

It's not the worst thing but it's not the best thing either.

I think this is probably the way it goes down. Houston doesn't REALLY fit schematically at his price point; and if it's true he's not restructuring, then I think there's no way he comes back.

Ford on the tag makes sense, pair it with a DE/Edge early in the draft, and you're in decent shape at DE. Speaks I think is a fine LDE, he's built for it and has a year's experience. Kpass is a wildcard but may surprise.

I agree with the above. Berry is an unfortunate cut, approach Houston regarding restructure or trade him, tag and keep Ford, seek quality help in secondary with available cap from these moves, draft well.

What part of this is not clear to you?

He's not going to pass a physical before the 15th of next Month and they would save practically nothing, even with a June 1st designation, once that guarantee kicks in. Give it a ****ing rest already.

who's quote?

asking seriously. If there's a legit source I'm interested. I just don't assume some guy on an internet bulletin board knows anything more than I do. But if that quote is from a reputable source, I'll take it.

Not going to pass a physical? He played in the AFCCG and has not opted for surgery to this point.

He passed a physical to play in the last game and didn't leave the game with an injury. Not our fault if he can't pass now