Overthecap's comp picks projection
 

Just released today. Here's what we're projected:

Rd 3--rewarded for Sean Smith
Rd 5--rewarded for Chase Daniel
Rd 6--rewarded for Donald Stephenson LMAO
Rd 6--rewarded for TyVonn Branch

http://overthecap.com/projecting-201...y-draft-picks/

So all in all, looks like we have 11 picks:

1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7

More Ammo for Dorsey!!!

I'm liking those 2-3's for sure and who knows what Dorsey might cook up by draft day !!

Thats a lotta picks, cant wait to see what Dorsey has in store for us this year

A 5th for Chase, a 3rd (!!!!!) for Sean Smith.

LMAO

Nice

Things are going our way!!:clap:

Good. Load up on it.

I would like to see them trade some picks for picks in future drafts. I don't think they need 11 draft picks this year with the current team.

A 6th for Stephenson!!! We scored!

He would have not made the team this year.

Smart to use some of them to trade up, since they are now tradeable.

We don't have that many roster spots.

Why would you trade today's picks for next year picks??

Bundle today's picks to MOVE UP in today's draft.

We SHOULD draft 32rd this year. :) How much ammo does it take to move up to 15ish to grab an impact player like Cunningham??

We should have got somethin for Cooper. He had 4 int's for the Cards 63 tackles. More than Eric Berry.

We couldn't have traded Smith for a bag of rubber dogshit, yet end up with a 3rd.


This is pure awesome.

A 6th and a 100 yards in penalties on Christmas :D

I still refuse to believe we're lucky enough to bet a 3rd for Sean Smith.

I still believe it's a fourth.

The fifth and two sixths have long been assumed by those of us who regular DraftPlanet.

Exactly, we let expensive, average talent players go and will replace them with cheaper, cap friendly players with hopefully more upside.

I don't miss any of them. A drunk driver, a clipboard holder, overpaid O linemen Donk traitor and a safety that made as many plays as he missed.

I hope we can turn our trash into gold next year as well.

The reason to move some of this year's picks for 2018 picks is simple: There just aren't enough needs in 2017 to accommodate 11 draft picks.

The Chiefs have one of the youngest rosters in the league and with the looming retirements of guys like Hali and Johnson, they'll become even younger.

While there's definitely room for improvement at certain positions (guard, ILB, WR) and depth (RB, OLB, CB, S, QB, TE), there's not room for eleven additional players.

They'd be better off moving a pick or two in 2018 to use as additional ammo in that draft.

I think I'd have rather had branch when the secondary got thin for a few games vs that comp pic

Schwartz only canceled out Jeff Allen? Score!

The Chiefs will only have two 6th rounders, as they lose theirs due to the Maclin tampering.

Branch spent more than half the year on IR, his usual M.O.

The Chiefs got a bargain.

No extra picks for the Raiders since they were buyers!

If there's someone they really like, sure move up. I don't think that works out very often and it's gonna take quite a bit to go up that high.

This is a good roster already, I don't thi k 11 picks are gonna make it.

This.

They need to keep adding depth for sure and look to push guys down the roster, but 11 is alot.

It's the same formula that worked in GB long ago and is now the norm in the NFL.

This is the 2nd major overhaul that this has worked with since Dorsey started here. Albert, DMC, Schwartz and T. Jackson all got big money in 2014 and all of them were busts. Just look at what Dorsey turned some of the comp picks from these players into:

Steven Nelson
DJ Alexander
Rakeem Nunez Roches

Amazing

Plus, it's one thing to make a single move up to get a guy. That can work, for sure, like in Chris Conley's case.

But generally speaking, if you're jumping up and down and all around during the draft, that means your board is pretty ****ed.

I would add that the 2018 QB class looks amazing and if we can't find that guy this year, I think the plan should be to stock up for a move in that draft.

Just in case people don't know how comp picks work:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...st-projections

The NFL offseason is once again heating up as organizations prepare for the announcement of which teams will be awarded compensatory picks in the 2014 NFL draft and where those selections will take place.
Should the NFL release the formula to determine compensatory picks?

Should the NFL release the formula to determine compensatory picks?
Yes
No
Total votes: 2,738

The basic philosophy of compensatory picks is that franchises that lost more free agents than they signed in the previous year will be awarded draft selections to make up for the losses, according to previously released documents from NFL.com

.

Picks are awarded in the third through seventh rounds, and there are 32 total selections that can be awarded to teams that fit the criteria.

According to Jimmy Kempski of Philly.com, the official formula for determining which round and number the picks will take place is not public.

With the picks typically awarded during the owner’s meetings (Sunday through Wednesday), here are the rules and formula explanation based on how the previous years have played out and the latest projections from experts across the league.

Rules and Formula Explanation
Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

While the NFL has kept the formula determining the exact pick each team will get a secret, the basic rules for the compensatory selections is common knowledge thanks to publicly released documents from the league.

Compensatory draft pick determinations are based on the salary, playing time and postseason honors of the free agents each team lost during the previous offseason. For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers should receive one of the top compensatory picks after losing wide receiver Mike Wallace to the Miami Dolphins via free agency.

All of the compensatory pick talk can be very confusing, but the selections will likely be awarded Monday, per Tania Ganguli of ESPN:

Each team is allowed a maximum of four compensatory picks, and selections will only be awarded to organizations that signed fewer players than they lost to free agency. That does not include players cut, players released after signing the year before or players making the league minimum.

The exact formula for where each selection will take place may not be known, but the size of the contract each free agent signed has been a major determining factor in previous years.

Latest Projections

There are plenty projections surrounding which teams will get compensatory picks and where the selections will fall, but Craig Turner (via Kempski), who has established a reputation for accurately predicting these picks, has projected which team and where each selection will take place in the 2014 draft.
Projected Compensatory Draft Picks (via Philly.com) 3 Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Wallace
3 Green Bay Packers Greg Jennings
3 Baltimore Ravens Paul Kruger
3 San Francisco 49ers Dashon Goldson
4 Detroit Lions Gosder Cherilus
4 Baltimore Ravens Dannell Ellerbe
4 Houston Texans Connor Barwin
5 New York Jets LaRon Landry
5 Baltimore Ravens Cary Williams
5 Atlanta Falcons Brent Grimes
5 Pittsburgh Steelers Keenan Lewis
5 New York Giants Martellus Bennett
5 Baltimore Ravens Ed Reed
5 Houston Texans Glover Quin
6 New York Jets Mike DeVito
6 Green Bay Packers Erik Walden
6 New York Jets Dustin Keller
6 New England Patriots Patrick Chung
6 Cincinnati Bengals Manny Lawson
6 St. Louis Rams Brandon Gibson
6 New York Jets Shonn Greene
7 St. Louis Rams Bradley Fletcher
7 Dallas Cowboys Mike Jenkins
7 Cincinnati Bengals Pat Sims
7 St. Louis Rams Craig Dahl
7 St. Louis Rams Rob Turner
7 Dallas Cowboys Victor Butler
7 Cincinnati Bengals Bruce Gradkowski
7 Atlanta Falcons Will Svitek
7 Atlanta Falcons Christopher Owens
7 San Diego CHargers Shaun Phillips
7 Dallas Cowboys Kenyon Coleman

Jimmy Kempski, Philly.com

The projections help fans understand exactly why teams are awarded the picks. The bigger the contract and the more a player impacts his new team, the better his old team will be rewarded with compensatory selections.

The New York Giants made several moves last offseason, but Jordan Raanan of NJ.com is still expecting the team to be awarded a pick for the team’s losses:

So, with the Giants losing Umenyiora and Bennett and their only significant addition being Myers, the Giants should be rewarded. My prediction is they net a fourth-round pick in the upcoming 2014 NFL Draft.

According to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com, the Atlanta Falcons are expecting several picks to make up for free-agent losses:

During this year's NFL combine, Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said he anticipated receiving two to three compensatory draft picks this year. The Falcons currently have a pick in every round and own the sixth overall pick in the draft.

While the Falcons are expecting several selections, the Philadelphia Eagles are not likely going to get any, per Paul Domowitch of Philly.com:

This is an exciting time for teams that were dejected by losses in free agency, but ESPN’s Andrew Brandt points out the truth about the release of the picks:

NFL fans won’t be forced to wait very long for the outcome to all of the pertinent questions regarding compensatory picks, and Monday’s announcement will add even more intrigue to May’s draft.

This year's draft offers plenty of talent at various positions. As a result, any extra ammunition NFL teams can acquire is beneficial, especially with mid-round picks. For those teams expecting a few extra selections, this process could prove to be a significant factor in their draft plans.

Nice. We're gonna lose a few key players after this year, but hopefully all that ammo means we'll be able to fill holes nicely.

Cooper's pick will come in 2018.

There are only 5 players remaining from 2012's roster: Allen Bailey (IR), Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles (IR), Justin Houston and Derrick Johnson (IR),

That's truly amazing.

Poe?

And if Chiefs wants to move up they can trade those picks.

Sweet, more picks = more opportunities for Dorsey to hit on a few. That's why teams value these picks so much nowadays. Rookie contracts, and more opportunities to 'hit' or 'strike gold'.

Hali? Poe? Colquitt?

Still, pretty crazy.

I wouldn't be opposed to them taking two shots at QB this year.

Eh, I should have said "Active roster".

:D

;)

That's very magnanimous of you

For the record, Dorsey is 5/5 on the three 1st rounders and two 2nd rounders he's drafted in KC.

He's also spent two 2nds on Alex Smith.

With Dadi Nicholas' huge injury, Tamba's age and Houston's knee (he should be fine next year but you never know), I would absolutely be in favor of trading up for a quality pass rusher in this draft.

Not first rd, but I would move up in rd 2 if the situation is that they don't see a QB they can target. It's a big need this offseason.

I don't know what that word means but I *think* you just suggested my mother has a penis.

The Dadi injury is huge for sure. Thankfully, this draft is "supposedly" filled with edge rushers so the Chiefs should be able to nab a guy, even without moving up (although I'd have no problem with it).

Unfortunately, it's weak across the board at offensive line, which sucks because the Chiefs could definitely upgrade at guard, even if it's backup players that project as starters at some point.

If we landed a stud, I'd totally be in favor of going OLB in round 1. Keep in mind we're likely drafting at 30, 31, or 32, so long as we hold home field.

Nothing wears down tackles like having to face fresh, high energy pass rushers all game.

Too early to say but as far as immediate starter holes, how many are we really going to have this offseason?

Poe is probably gone, but even then, you still have Jones, Howard, and Bailey.

Dorsey has always been BPA I think, but in this year's case he may have every reason to use that strategy.

Man, teams are going to be reaching for OL all over this draft, too.

Fortunately, the Chiefs line is at least capable, though not exceptional. And the top 8 OL we have on our roster are all under contract for 2017.

Our entire OL room is under contract through next year, I believe. Great luxury that the Chiefs haven't had in years.

They have started to gel pretty well the last few weeks because they've been able to start the same 5 for like 9 games in a row, thankfully. Ehinger looked like a legit starter with PB potential.

One of those deals where I trust the FO to continually find competent options at guard on rookie deals.

I think Poe gets an extension and they resign Berry.

Poe isn't going anywhere, especially for the money that some people have believed he'll be offered. He's not a Pro Bowler or an All Pro.

He's not getting $15 million a year and will be lucky to get $10.

I still don't think Poe is gone. Even if he is, we just plug Howard in.

The only starting hole we'll have is ILB, which at the very least DJ will return by November or December.

You could argue we have a hole at CB if you're nervous about Mitchell's play carrying over into 2017. Which I am.

The issue with Ehinger, IMO, is that he tore his ACL in October.

As we've seen with Houston and Charles, it's taking quite a while longer for guys to get healthy, so I'm not even sure he's available to play next year.

One thing we have going for us there is Poe LOVES Reid and he is really close with a lot of his teammates it would seem. He might be willing to take a little less to stay.

I have no clue what his market value would be, but if the Chiefs win the SB it is probably going to be pretty rich.

That's because you're ignoring his technique and success and basing it on a completely different player, which is dumb as ****.

I'm completely fine if the Chiefs draft a Day 2 or Day 3 CB and as a matter of fact, I think they should.

But they shouldn't do it because "Oh, Mitchell might turn into a pumpkin like Marcus Cooper did".

According to OTC, a simple void of Nick Foles' and Jamaal Charles' contracts gives the Chiefs around $22 million in cap room, plus whatever they roll over from this year.

Ample room indeed to keep Berry and Poe with low first year hits..

I've read that OLB and CB are stacked with talent at the top of the draft. If a QB isn't on their radar this year, I would have no issue drafting those positions in the first 2 rds.

Apparently this is one of the weakest OL classes in years from what I've read, which really does suck bc I don't trust that Parker Ehinger's knee will hold up next year after the setbacks we've had this year.

But I think the biggest "hole" on this team, and I would call it the biggest need as well, is OLB. We always have injuries there so it's a top need.

I can't imagine many other coaches would let him throw a pass, that's for sure.

The one thing I'll say (among the many things I've already said) is that having 10 picks, and four in the first three rounds, means we can almost completely ignore free agency and just focus on our own guys.

If we could bring in Tyrod Taylor or even scoop up Trevor Siemian if the Broncos were to cut him for some reason for a #2 QB, I'd take that. Maybe.

Other than that, we can pretty much take pennies-on-the-dollar free agent flyers and leave our FA activity at that.

I want Dorsey to draft BPA, regardless of position, and I think that's what they do...

It showed this year with the Chris Jones pick. No one thought we 'needed' a D-Lineman whatsoever, but a couple injuries happen and here we are. Without Jones, I don't know where we would be right now as he is clearly the best interior rusher we've got.

BPA, 100%. Whether its QB, DL, LB, DB, WR, whatever.

This is 100% false.

Dane knew, I knew, everyone in the draft forum knew. Hell even Terez Paylor knew. He was mocking 3 or 4 DL to us (including Jones) for weeks.

Dorsey's trend was to draft for "future need". This year it looks like it's one of the following:

-DL: assuming Poe is franchised. Howard will be in a contract year next season.
-QB: Alex's contract runs out after 2018.

I should clarify, I knew we did, because of Poe's contract, but I don't think anyone expected to draft a starting caliber, or elite potential player at the DL position.

EDIT: I fully expect KC to draft a QB this year, but I think it could be anywhere between round 1-5, so who knows.

Why in the world would the Broncos cut their best QB in 2016, especially when he's dirt cheap?

Even though that's complete lunacy, there would be a huge market for him, especially as a starter in place like Los Angeles, Buffalo, NY, etc. and so on.

Good ****ing grief, man.

OL. LDT and Fulton will be on their last years.

Pretty sure I indicated it would be unlikely for either to end up here.

I think the Broncos make a play for Romo. They've got Lynch. It's possible Siemian demands to get off the roster.

Poe, Berry, Sorenson, Wilson, Santos, Reyes, Davis and Winchester are all FA. Could this be Albert Wilsons last year with us? I wonder who all we will not resign. I think Davis is a goner for sure.

Sorenson, Wilson, and Santos are restricted FAs. They will likely be back if the teams wants them, which at least 2 of the 3 I'm sure they do.

I like it. Turn a 3rd rd pick into a 2018 2nd. Take a few day 3 picks and use em to move up. Chiefs will probably only need 5 selections, plus a few wild stabs at UDFAs to battle the bottom depth chart players.

You're speculating but even IF Seimian "demands" to "get off the roster", the Broncos aren't cutting him, they're trading him.

I doubt they would draft a G in the first rd, especially in such a weak OL class. I think it would be a bad value pick from that standpoint with LDT and Ehinger showing promise.

It's early but I have a feeling that Dorsey will look strongly to the future after seeing this year play out.

Tamba might have 1 more year left as a part time player, Dadi won't even be on field again until 2018 and Houston turns 28 this month after being injured multiple times in key moments since 2013.

It's a strong OLB class and it's a really good year to get one. Right now our only depth is an old declining Tamba and Frank ****ing Zombo.

They've gotta look for the future at ilb. Another pass rusher.

They're in a good spot that early, they can look for real difference makers

Kendall Beckwith from LSU just feels Chiefy and right. Dude is strong and effective vs the run, and has better range than given credit for. Tigers kept him on the field even in obvious pass downs.

This is where the extra picks come in handy.

If they like Mahomes at their 1st round spot, grab him.

Move up in the 2nd for a OLBer and from the late 3rd to the early 3rd/late 2nd for an ILBer although I'm not ruling out Ramik Wilson and Terrance Smith as future starters.

Dorsey is going to have a lot of flexibility.

After watching more of Mahomes, I don't think I'd take home before the 3rd. He's a long ways off.

I would really like to get a young stud at ilb to grow with the rest of the young d.

Yep. Seeing Mahomes and 1st round just looks :facepalm: ... but it wouldn't be the first or last wild reach.

He sure did give us a nice Xmas gift! ROFL

Sure I agree we could use some OLB depth, but with Ford and Houston we are still loaded for the future. Houston's injuries have been troublesome but 28 years old is still young for a pass rusher if you look at some of the monster seasons guys have had in their 30s over the last 10-15 years.

All for drafting another OLB at some point though if he's BPA.

Well, as I've stated, if Dorsey chooses him in the 1st, I'm all good with it but if he doesn't, and gets him later, I'm good with that, too.

But IMO, it would be nice to get a developmental QB before the 5th round.

we are probably going to have lots of needs so that's good.

Dorsey is a comp pick master.

Guard,WR,RB,TE(blocker)

MLB,NT,CB,S

8 real needs with FA and 11 picks to make it happen

Donks made out like bandits. Two 3rd rounders & a 4th. Damn.


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Taking everyones word for it that 2018 is the year to go get a QB, lets not reach for it this year

Load up on players at ILB, OLB, RB etc this year

Not sure if I would consider those positions as "needs" except ILB. All of the other positions seem to just be depth.

I'm still leaning pass rusher at this point