NYT Playoff Simulator is up for 2016
 

I don't know about you guys, but I loved this thing last year. It's similar to cdcox's old forecasting software and is lots of fun for seeing how our chances at the playoffs shift in various scenarios.

League-wide view:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f-picture.html

Chiefs view:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f-picture.html

Here's the current odds of various scenarios:

http://i.imgur.com/p9OrCjE.png

I also love having it as a rooting guide each week. Most of the time, the important games are obvious, but it's nice to have confirmation on which games impact our chances the most:

http://i.imgur.com/5aEy4u6.png

So in short, we want the Ravens to beat the Dolphins next week and the Broncos to lose. The Raiders are a strange one. In terms of our chances of MAKING THE PLAYOFFS, we actually want the Raiders to beat the bills (though obviously we'll be aiming our sights higher than just getting in).

This team is winning the goddamn division.

I tried to go conservative and had us dropping @ ATL, OAK, and DEN while winning TEN and SD.

That had us at 50% to get the 5 seed, 42% to get the 6 and 6% chance at missing the playoffs entirely.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...8ad3ed451e.jpg



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Yeah, if we can win 3 of the next 5, we're in. 2 of the next 5, and we're most likely in. 1 of the next 5, and we're most likely out.

Not a bad situation to be in.

538's model has a long tail and still thinks the Raiders are mediocre. Unless we can get them to drop a game they'll be favored in, it's gonna be tough for us to win the division.

But really, it'll most likely come down to the game at Arrowhead.

No way Oakland goes into Denver and beats a healthy Denver team.

Then they have to beat us at Arrowhead.

Took some screen shots for quick rooting interests in weeks 13-16:

Chiefs to get the #1 seed.
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...269eea2ecc.pnghttp://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...2072174958.pnghttp://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...ba907c4ebf.pnghttp://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...ddaaa8bb17.png

The deeper the color the more important the outcome. Obviously the Chiefs need to keep winning.


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Hopefully the Bills will fight for a playoff spot and pull off a win against the Raiders.

The reality is that we're absolutely in control of our destiny from here on out.

We're unbeaten in the division, have won the 2 toughest division games on the road, including head-to-head against both of the other contenders who have to come to our crib in December.

Then again, we lost to the Bucs at Arrowhead too.

The Bucs are a good team, so is San Diego and Ten. We aren't going to win out.

If they get healthy, sure, why not.

That's a pretty big if.

honestly, anything can happen in this division. It was the same for our division in nfc west. AZ/SF/SEA all had strong teams. Any three could win the division still and they would deserve it. Great division and football is getting exciting. Honestly, this year is way better than last years.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...02c446da8d.jpg


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**** Donk forever.

So basically this is telling me that if the Chiefs beat the Raiders and Broncos we have a 75% chance of getting a first round bye (regardless of whatever else happens). This week's game is the least meaningful to everything but the #1 seed.

Gronk is out. AFC wide open.

Now or never

If I'm Reid I'm not playing Maclin until Thursday night and if he is, give him a few looks on curls or quick slants. He needs be healthy as possible for Oakland

There has never been a better chance to get to the Super Bowl in my lifetime.

Maybe the one year with Montana. But otherwise...

Dude. Just don't. Please, for your sake.

I was noticing too that the Falcons game doesn't have much implication. You want to win, of course, but it's really the AFC West games that matter.

Yeah, obviously the AFC games carry more weight for playoff seeding... the rest of the stretch though, if the goal is fighting for that bye - then every game is a playoff game for the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos at this point.

Chiefs have the overall WC advantage at this point with 8 wins. There are 5 teams at or above .500, sitting 1-2 games out.

So, anything can move things around down the stretch. Will be interesting to see if the Texans can hold off the Titans.

Thanks for sharing this. Very cool stuff!

AFCW update after today's games:

http://i.imgur.com/ymCcjbO.png

They now have us with a better chance than the Raiders to win the division. Interesting.

I know it's asking for alot, but if we swept the division this year it would be ****ing awesome.

Overall, the Chiefs have

...a #1 seed in 11% of scenarios
...a #2 seed in 29% of scenarios
...a #3 seed in 2% of scenarios
...a #4 seed in 0% of scenarios
...a #5 seed in 40% of scenarios
...a #6 seed in 11% of scenarios
...are out of the playoffs in 8% of scenarios

A win over the Raiders changes those figures to ...

...a #1 seed in 17% of scenarios
...a #2 seed in 47% of scenarios
...a #3 seed in 1% of scenarios
...a #4 seed in 0% of scenarios
...a #5 seed in 26% of scenarios
...a #6 seed in 6% of scenarios
...are out of the playoffs in 2% of scenarios

It won't happen, but theoretically a loss to the Raiders would hypothetically change those figures to ...

...a #1 seed in 1% of scenarios
...a #2 seed in 11% of scenarios
...a #3 seed in 0% of scenarios
...a #4 seed in 0% of scenarios
...a #5 seed in 58% of scenarios
...a #6 seed in 17% of scenarios
...are out of the playoffs in 13% of scenarios

In summary, this is kind of a big game.

Yep. For the most part, a loss ensures that we're playing for a wild card. A win puts us in the driver's seat for a bye (though there will still be work to be done).

Raiders are at KC, at SD, at Denver

That ain't easy.

I think the highest seed the Chiefs can get is the 2nd because the Pats have the tiebreakers over them.


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Unless the Pats lose a couple games. It's not likely, but it's not out of the question.

Pats will lose to Denver.

KC wins the rest of their games they will have the 1 seed.

After playing with that, as we all know our chances for the 1 seed are basically zero.

I'm surprised to see what it would take for us to blow the 2 seed. It's hard to come up with any realistic scenario. The AFC is pretty bad.

Nope - Pats have to lose 2.

Pats have to lose twice.




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Playoff chance is now 99%.

If we have the same AFC record as the Pats... Since we don't have at least 4 common games with them...then as of now we beat them based on strength of victory

We lose tie breaker to them at the end if you run the simulator. Have to finish ahead of them.

You already counting Monday night as a loss for them? As of now, they are 10-2 and a half game up on us.

The only way is for NE to lose to Denver and Miami (in addition to KC winning out) - there really is no other viable options - NE isn't losing to the Jets or Baltimore at home.

Pats have to lose against the Ravens on Monday night and against Denver the following week for the Chiefs to get the number 1 seed.

There are all kinds of ways the Chiefs can get a first week bye - even if they lose a couple of their remaining games (provided the Raiders lose too).

Why does the NYT thing say that now that we have beaten the Raiders they have a better chance of winning the division and getting the bye?

If I had known that would happen I would have been rooting for the Raiders to win.

B-more is looking up.

I don't think I can root for Donk victory. **** Donk forever.

:spock:

I'd take the #2 seed right now if you offered it me. #1 would just be a bonus.

Is there any scenario where the AFW champion falls out of the #2 seed and down to the #3?

The way this team has been winning, home and away doesn't seem to matter. Every win looks the same. At least being the #5 seed almost assures a playoff victory this year against the AFCS.
Being the #2 seed means getting a tough AFCN winner at home in the AFCDG. We need to bring our A game.

I'm not worried at all about playing NE in NE without Gronk

But then you play the extra game.

Exactly its the play offs no easy games.

I don't really know what you're looking at.

http://i.imgur.com/3Hm9z2X.png

Based on the chart I just posted, it's technically possible if the Chiefs are the AFCW champ (see the difference between the probabilities of us winning the division and getting a bye), but highly unlikely (about a 2% chance).

ROFL

Pass the pipe, man. You've had enough.

NE just wins. In NE, they are unbeatable. They can roll my ass out there at WR and CB, and as long as they have buttchin, they win. Doesn't matter.

I don't remember a season like this in that it seems theres no break after a big win.

This turned out to be a tough ass schedule down the stretch here. I mean, I think they're gonna have to win out to take the division and the Broncos are still right where they wanna be.

Yeah last night it wasn't showing this -- it showed the win-loss updated but the odds apparently were the way they were before the game.

Now it is updated again and the Chiefs are (properly) on top...

As has been stated many times...Chiefs win out & Pats lose 2 games the Chiefs get #1 seed.

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Current odds:
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...1e85d4e37a.pnghttp://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...571ef8533f.pnghttp://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...217971a9b2.png


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I think they lose Monday night against Baltimore. They're without Gronk and now Martellus Bennett.

Belichick has traded away his two best defensive players, they've struggled to beat the Jets and have only beaten 2 teams with a winning record this year.

Their last quality win was 6 weeks ago against the Steelers, who were without Rothlisberger, so I'm not even sure that counts as a quality win.

It's looking like 2 of 3 should lock up the division and the 2 seed.

It would be nice to win the next 2 and give some guys 2 weeks off

Sure. Yeah. But I still don't want to go to Foxboro. Like at all.

Bennett is going to play. May not be 100%.

Whoever wins the AFC Westis almost guaranteed a first round bye. The Pats have to play three teams still playing for something so not out of the realm of possibility that they drop two. Not likely, but possible.

I think the Patriots are vulnerable in 3 of their last 4 games:

Baltimore
At Denver
At Miami

The Jets just look dead. I suppose it's their Super Bowl but they're terrible.

The Broncos, by virtue of their defense, are a real threat to beat the Pats.

Smasher was he will be cheering denver tomorrow

Jets didn't even care on mnf. Maybe petty could give them energy but I doubt they even put up a fight.

According to this nifty thing, we've still got a 40% chance of winning the 2 seed and 31% chance at the 5 seed. Only 5% chance of missing the playoffs entirely.

Relax.

So, if the Raiders lose, we remain in the #2 spot?

We might as well root for Denver to lose as well then.

Yes. And yes. If we concede that we're not getting the #1 pick, we want the Broncos to lose.

I'll concede that just so that I can cheer for them to lose.

Shoot I don't need a playoff simulator. I know what's gonna happen. A road playoff loss in Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

We CANNOT win the #1 seed anymore unless NE lost all three and we win last two

Not going to happen :shake:

Go Pats!


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If I'm reading everything correctly, the Chiefs will clinch if:

The Chiefs win ANY game (vs Broncos or @ Chargers)
The Ravens lose ANY game (@ Steelers or @ Bengals)
The Steelers lose to the Browns (ha!)
The Dolphins lose BOTH games (@ Bills and vs. Patriots)

It's pretty simple for the division. Now that the Raiders have won, we need to have a BETTER record than them through the final two games. If they lose one, we need to win both. If they lose both (unlikely), we have to win one.

Oh, and in terms of raw percentages, it gives us a 98% chance of making the playoffs, but only a 27% chance of getting a bye at this point.

Oakland still has two tough games left vs Indy and @ Denver.

Yup

God dammit Andy

We don't need a better record than them. We get the second seed if we have the same record.

Oh misread, you were just talking the record of the 2 games not season overall.
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"In the final two games" is important (though I concede that my "through" may have been confusing).