It was supposed to be a test against Pitt on Saturday, but Mason Rudolph’s stat line by the end of the first half read this way: 20-for-28, 423 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INT, and a commanding 49-14 lead.

And yet, on the actual tape, some NFL scouts swear there’s still plenty to be desired.

“He’s O.K.,” said one AFC scouting director. “He’s playing in a great, quarterback-friendly offense. Probably has a top 10-caliber group of receivers. Gundy is a great coach and does an outstanding job with that offense. I’m not sold on him as a top guy . . . He’s a decent athlete. He’s tough and runs that offense well. But not sure the video game numbers he’s gonna put up this year will translate to the NFL.”

“He’s got good size,” was the positive an AFC personnel exec found before echoing the sentiment, “but his arm strength is lacking and he’s inconsistent with his accuracy.”

Added an area scout: “Not as good as the media wants everyone to believe; he’s a Day 3 guy. His accuracy isn’t as good as the numbers show—his receivers make a lot of tough catches for him. Arm strength is adequate, not tops. What’s the difference between him and Bryce Petty?”

There have been 12 quarterbacks in major college football history to throw for 5,000 yards in a season, and just three of them—Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes and David Klingler—went in the first five rounds out of the draft. The other nine? Two sixth-rounders, two seventh-rounders, a ninth-rounder (when that round still existed) and four undrafted free agents.

So what set Carr and Mahomes apart? Simple: traits.

If you come from one of these systems, your traits need to be special because there will be skepticism. Both Mahomes and Carr had unquestionable arm talent, and each carried leadership qualities that made teams believe they had the commitment level needed to transition from those offenses; the latter can only truly be gauged after the prospect leaves campus and enters the pre-draft process.

“At at a minimum, [Rudolph] has to have the arm talent,” the AFC scouting director said. “He might have the mental ability, but we don’t learn that until we get our hands on them after the season.”


Top of the Class

1. Sam Darnold, USC (28-49, 397 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT vs. Texas): One of the interceptions clanged off his receiver’s hands, and a dime that receiver Tyler Vaughns dropped in double overtime would’ve served as the game-winner (before a 43-yard field goal did). All that is to say: Darnold was even better than his numbers showed in an epic win.

2. Josh Rosen, UCLA (34-56, 463, 4 TD, 2 INT vs. Memphis): Rosen’s talent was again on display, but his warts were too. Too often he put the ball in harm’s way, and he wound up paying for it with a fourth-quarter pick that effectively clinched the Tigers’ upset win over the Bruins.

3. Josh Allen, Wyoming (9-24, 64 yards, 0 TD, INT vs. Oregon): The numbers speak for themselves, and this means Allen will finish the regular season 0-2 against FBS opponents, with the QB losing those games by a cumulative score of 73-16 and posting a 0-to-3 TD/INT ratio. Obviously, given that level of competition is an issue on his résumé, you can bet these performances will come up in the spring. And yet, the major takeaway I got from NFL evaluators when I asked around about it: how little help Allen has around him.

Helped Himself

Luke Falk, Washington State: We mentioned last week that Falk’s stock sunk not just because of a benching, but because of how well his backup performed in leading Washington State back from the dead in a win over Boise State. So we have to give Falk his props here, having thrown for 396 yards and six scores on 37-of-49 passing to (a) thrash Oregon State 52-23, and (b) reestablish himself as the guy in Pullman.

Hurt Himself

Lamar Jackson, Louisville: His numbers weren’t horrid, but he stumbled through the first half (8-20, 83 yards; 7 carries, 47 yards) as Louisville fell behind 19-7, at home against Clemson. Then he threw a back-breaker of a pick-six early in the third quarter. That extended Clemson’s lead to 26-7, and furthered doubts about how Jackson plays when the level of competition is amped up.

I pulled together a too-early ranking and ran it by couple NFL scouts to tweak. Here’s what we ended up with for a top 10



1. Sam Darnold, QB, USC
2. Derwin James, S, Florida State
3. Arden Key, EDGE, LSU
4. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
5. Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
6. Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
7. Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
8. Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College
9. Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
10. Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Keep an eye on: Texas OT Connor Williams’s recovery from knee surgery. He might miss the season—he tore his meniscus against USC—and would’ve made this list if not for the injury. Also, Clemson DT Christian Wilkins was the toughest omission (it was between him, Sutton and Guice).

How should scouts weigh Josh Allen's production vs. his potential?

That's the dilemma they face in their evaluation of the Wyoming quarterback this season. The 6-foot-5, 233-pound redshirt junior has all of the tools to be a franchise QB, but his play against top competition leaves evaluators wondering if he is a "project" or "player" at the position.

There's no denying his remarkable gifts as an athletic playmaker with a rocket arm and unlimited range. However, Allen struggles with his accuracy and ball placement on intermediate and deep throws. Not to mention, he repeatedly misses the mark on short throws due to sloppy footwork and mechanics inside the pocket.

With Allen also exhibiting poor judgment and ball security under duress, he looks nothing like the highly touted QB1 prospect who dominated the conversation for most of the spring and summer.

Granted, Allen isn't playing with a star-studded cast, but franchise players are expected to raise their teammates' level of play. Fair or not, he hasn't exhibited that quality while struggling through a disappointing start to the 2017 campaign. The Cowboys have been blasted by a pair of Power 5 teams (Iowa and Oregon) in showcase games, which raised doubts about Allen's ability to reverse the fortunes of an NFL franchise searching for a solution at the QB1 position.

Allen's performances against Iowa and Oregon are part of an alarming trend that should prompt evaluators to pause before affixing a big grade next to his name. In three career games against Power 5 competition, Allen has a 50-percent completion rate (48 of 96 for 427 yards) and a 1:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In 11 career games against FBS teams with winning records, he has posted a 53.3-percent completion rate with a 15:15 TD-to-INT ratio.

Now, I know the film study outweighs statistics in the evaluation process, but it's hard to ignore those numbers. Elite QB prospects are expected to complete at least 65 percent of their passes without counting the "at-the-line" throws (bubble screens) that inflate the overall percentage. That's why Allen's low numbers and turnover woes against top competition should be a huge problem for evaluators assessing his prospects. He hasn't performed to the level of his talent, and there's no way to know if he will ever reach his ceiling as a player.

With that in mind, the offseason could be critical for determining his value, if he decides to apply for early draft eligibility after this season. That's when teams could get a chance to watch him perform at an all-star game (if he graduates and receives an invitation to the Senior Bowl -- underclassmen can be invited if they have already graduated).

If he does indeed enter the draft and receives that all-star game invite, he will have a chance to play against elite competition with a star-studded supporting cast to help him shine in a pro-style offense that should enhance his skills as an athletic drop-back passer with a big arm. In addition, Allen's superior arm talent could dwarf his competitors when scouts see him throw beside other top QB prospects.

Until it's time for him to make a decision about his future this offseason, Allen must rediscover his mojo and put a few spectacular performances against Mountain West competition on tape to entice scouts to value his potential over his production. -- Bucky Brooks

RUDOLPH HAS LOOK OF FIRST-ROUNDER

I received a text message from a scout earlier this week about one of the top quarterback prospects in the country. No, it wasn't about Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen or Josh Allen. Those three are widely heralded as the top signal-callers in college football. It wasn't about Baker Mayfield, either, although he's off to a fantastic start this fall.

The text was about a different Big 12 QB -- Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph.

"(He's) a great example of why kids should go back to school" the scout wrote of Rudolph, who could've entered the NFL draft last spring. "Last season, he was a one-read thrower and he struggled with accuracy on underneath throws. This year, he's shown great pocket presence, his accuracy is much improved and he's going through his progressions. I know it's against Tulsa, South Alabama and Pitt, but he's showing me some things I didn't think he had."

I went back and studied Rudolph's Week 3 game against Pittsburgh and I was very impressed. He's firm in the pocket, he's quickly working through his progressions and he was accurate on drive throws as well as touch throws. I love his quick delivery, and he has shown the ability to throw with anticipation. He was a little inconsistent when he was forced off his spot, but he's more mobile than I gave him credit for in my offseason evaluation. He made one poor decision, pre-determining a target (the ball was poorly thrown as well), which resulted in an interception.

Overall, Rudolph had the look of a first-round talent. I'm anxious to see how he plays when the Cowboys face tougher competition, beginning with No. 16 TCU this week. -- Daniel Jeremiah

LARAMIE, Wyo. -- I spent Saturday afternoon watching Wyoming and its talented junior quarterback, Josh Allen, take on Texas State. Allen got off to a rough start this season, but he led the Cowboys to a 45-10 win over the Bobcats, completing 14 of 24 passes for 219 yards and a season-high 3 touchdowns.

Leading up to that contest, I spent the week studying all of Allen's game tape from the 2017 season. Here are 5 takeaways after doing my homework on the signal-caller who's been called the best QB prospect since Cam Newton.

1. Allen's production is down but it isn't all his fault. Some observers have suggested Allen's numbers are declining this season because the pressure of being a top-rated player is getting to him. After playing in relative anonymity in 2016, he has been in the spotlight this fall. He was rated as the sixth-best player in the college game in CFB 24/7's preseason rankings. However, his stat line has looked ugly in 3 of the first 5 games of this season (9-19 for 92 yards, TD vs. Hawaii; 9-24, 64 yards, 1 INT vs. Oregon; 23-40, 174 yards, 2 INTs at Iowa).

After studying the tape, I'd place more of the blame for his disappointing production on the talent (or lack thereof) surrounding Allen than on Allen himself. Wyoming lost several key players, including WRs, to the NFL last spring and their replacements have struggled to create separation and catch the ball. I pressed pause on the tape every time Allen would get to the top of his drop, and I struggled to locate options for him to place the football. There just isn't a lot of speed on the field around him.

There were numerous drops by Wyoming receivers in the first four games, but they did catch the ball consistently against Texas State on Saturday. They are starting to get healthier -- one of their top receivers returned last week -- and they expect their top tight end to return shortly. Hopefully, they can build off the success they had Saturday.

2. Allen needs to do a better job of protecting the football. While the drops by his receivers are a major issue, he needs to better secure the ball when he extends plays. Allen needs to learn when to simply give up on a play. He has such a unique ability to buy time with his legs and plenty of confidence in his arm to fit balls into tight windows, but there are times where it's necessary to throw the ball away or take a sack. This is a challenge for a lot of quarterbacks, and it's something he can overcome.

3. Allen's skill set is rare. Allen's arm strength and athletic ability jump off the tape, but you need to see him play live in order to fully appreciate it. I stood on the field during warmups Saturday and watched him effortlessly throw the ball into the back of the end zone from 60-plus yards out. The ball jumps out of his hand. He throws the deep out from the opposite hash as well as any quarterback I've ever scouted. The ball is flat and it gets there in a hurry. He also has the ability to make ridiculous throws on the move to both his right and left. I'd put his skill set (arm strength and athleticism) up against any quarterback in the NFL.

4. He'll be a difficult evaluation for NFL personnel departments. I've been in war-room meetings and I've participated in some intense debates about where to slot players on a draft board. I imagine there will be some spirited chats about Allen whenever he moves on to the next level. For those in his corner, you can sell his skill set and excuse his struggles by blaming them on his supporting cast. For those arguing against him, you can sell the numbers -- low completion percentage (55 percent), turnovers against top competition (TD-INT ratio of 1-8 in 3 career games vs. Power 5 teams), etc.

5. If the opportunity presents itself, Allen should play in the Reese's Senior Bowl. I'm not sure where Allen is in his progress toward earning a college degree, but if he can graduate this fall, it would be a no-brainer to participate in the annual all-star game, should he choose to enter the draft after this season and receive an invite to the game.

This has been a polarizing topic in the past. We had this discussion about Deshaun Watson last season. I thought he should've accepted the Senior Bowl invitation, but I understood his reasoning for declining to play. He had just finished a long season, culminating in an epic finish against Alabama in the title game.

Allen won't be in that same situation. While his Wyoming team will have a chance to earn a spot in a bowl game, he won't have another huge stage to play on this season. If he showed up at the Senior Bowl, he would have an opportunity to play against (and more importantly, with) some of the top players in the country. Every NFL team would see him up close and it's likely that one quarterback-needy team would get a chance to coach him for a week. I think that would be a perfect opportunity for him to make a strong closing argument about his worthiness of a high draft pick.

Bonus takeaway: I know a lot of folks have jumped off the Allen bandwagon due to his struggles this season, but I'm still on board. I've visited with him a couple times and I've come away very impressed with his maturity, passion and intelligence. He's going to impress teams when they get a chance to visit with him. He still has some areas to polish in his game before he's ready to take NFL snaps, but his upside is off the charts.

Washington State is one of the biggest surprises in college football this season. Led by senior signal-caller Luke Falk, the Cougars are off to a 5-0 start and they are coming off an impressive performance in a 30-27 win over USC.

In that game, most evaluators would agree Falk outplayed Sam Darnold. If not for a handful of dropped passes, the game probably wouldn't have been close, and Falk would be getting more national attention. His performance led me to this week's Ask 5 question: Who's a good comparison for Falk? I reached out to five NFL personnel executives to get their thoughts on the topic. Here are their answers.

Executive 1: Sam Bradford
"He reminds me of Bradford. Similar thin frame, arm strength and accuracy. I think Falk is tougher and has more of the 'it' factor."

Executive 2: Matt Hasselbeck
"He's not quite as athletic but he reminds me of Matt Hasselbeck. He's a smart, tough distributor and he's very accurate."

Executive 3: AJ McCarron
"I see a little of McCarron. He's a second-to-fourth-rounder who will start in time. I like Falk's makeup better."

Executive 4: Jared Goff
"He has the same body type as Goff and they have similar traits. However, Goff has a slightly stronger arm."
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Executive 5: Kirk Cousins
"He reminds me of Cousins both on and off the field. Smart, tough guys with excellent work habits and leadership qualities. They have similar arm strength and accuracy on the field."


Conclusion: This is an interesting collection of names. You can tell that each executive believes Falk will end up being a starter at some point in his NFL career. I compared him to Cousins over the summer but I do see a lot of Hasselbeck in his game.

The more I study Falk, the more I like him. I wouldn't be shocked if he found his way into the first round of the upcoming draft.