Yeah I am not gonna pretend to have watched more than 5 mins of Miami football (only bc of Cam Ward tbh) but he looks like a really good fit for us.

He’s a one year wonder guy in terms of productivity so I don’t think he will be a first rd value, but his injury was pretty bad and seemed to hurt him in 2022 and 2023.

Feels like he could be a Xavier Legette type of guy who was also a true one year star guy but has the upside to be picked with one of the last picks in the first rd.

This is probably true.

My current guesstimate:
Round 1 - Jeanty
Round 2 - Hampton, Johnson, Henderson
Round 3 - Sampson, Judkins, Harvey
Round 4 - James, Skattebo, Neal, Gordon, Tuten
Round 5 - Hunter, Allen, Giddens, Monagai, Brooks
Round 6 - Marks, Martinez, Sanders
Round 7 - Etienne, Mullings, Smith, Yarns

Yeah -- I think those are reasonable projections for those guys (even if it's not how I'd value them for the Chiefs specifically).

That's why I just won't end up getting, say, Johnson. Or Judkins. I wouldn't take Johnson in the 2nd or Judkins in the 3rd. But I'd maybe get Sampson or Harvey.

My only real question becomes who among those guys I'd be willing to take in the 4th. Because with no draft capital to speak of after the 4th round, that's the million dollar question.

Tuten, Gordon and James are guys I'd look at with our 4th (and anyone 'above' them on your list) if we hadn't taken one by then. And probably Sanders, though I'm not completely sold on him yet. Looks like I'm a lot higher on him than you are.

So in terms of RBs and what picks I'd look at them with (these compound):

31: Jeanty -- he won't fall this far, but if he did I'd take him here in all likelihood.

63: Hampton, Henderson and Sampson

66: Johnson (realistically, i should put him in the list above but I do have him a step behind those guys for this squad)

95: Harvey

132: Judkins, Tuten, James, Gordon, Sanders

It's just such an odd exercise to attempt though because so much of it depends on who else is there. But I'd almost have to have gotten one of those guys by the end of the 4th round. I can't come out of this draft without a RB.

I'd rather have Taylor. Might even prefer Helm.

I'd be pretty content taking none of them and seeing what's left with the late 2nd or early 3rd. I'm not taking Arroyo with a 1st. Loveland -- maybe. Warren -- absolutely.

But Arroyo isn't obviously better than Taylor, Helm or Fannin so I'm just gonna rely on surplus and let things play out rather than reach for him.

It's all about the athletic upside for me. He's got more speed and overall upside as a receiver than those guys IMO.

He might (probably not more than than Fannin, though).

Which gets back to my previous point in a couple of these other threads - I'm beyond caring at this point.

Because as an athlete and receiver, he's still not going to be better than one of the fairly ordinary WRs out of this class. If we don't have a HoF caliber, All Pro move TE, I don't want to be TE-centric anymore.

And I don't think Arroyo is better as a receiver than Warren or Loveland. So I'm hard pressed to conclude that there are THREE stud receiving TEs coming out of this class.

Which tells me that with Arroyo we're looking at another good pass catching TE not terribly unlike someone like Trey McBride as his upside.

Eh.

Gimme the more rounded TE and a better WR3 to form up an 11 personnel group and then an explosive RB to finish off the mix.

I just don't find myself all that stoked about a 'Kelce Replacement' these days. They don't exist.

Just pivot.

Judkins doesn't seem to get much love. What is he lacking? I'm not advocating for him, I just don't know much about him, other than he seems to show up fairly high on most RB draft lists.

Exactly.....why get hooked into trying to repeat a formula. Pivot and/or evolve.
I think Grey is fine as a Kelce replacement and we don't know what we have in Wiley. I would get a blocking TE in the later rounds or FA and maybe visit TE early next year

Gray's a little undersized as an every down TE. He's a game, but not good, blocker. He's...adequate.

And athletically he's fine but not a standout.

I don't think his particular tool set would be difficult to find in a package that's 2-3 inches taller with 20-30 lbs more weight. Hell, we probably have that in Wiley, to be honest.

I don't have a problem upgrading on Gray if Kecle retires. I'm just not terribly enthusiastic about using a 1st round pick on it. Probably wouldn't even use a 2nd rounder. I just think I'm going to like some of the DL options available in/around those picks.

Agreed. I started to do some slotting but very rudimentary at this stage... Just threw some colors on for the shits for right now but this is kind of what I'd look at right now...

https://i.ibb.co/rKfDzthC/Draft-Board-1.png

Looks like we're closer together on a lot of these guys than we've been in years past.

May be harder for us to find things to yell at each other about this year...

**** YOU, KYLE WILLIAMS IS BETTER THAN PAT BRYANT!!!

I don’t think they are gonna draft a WR again in rd 1 bc Rashee looks to be on track, Worthy is awesome and Hollywood is most likely coming back. Also think the WR class after the top 3 of McMillan, Burden and Egbuka takes a pretty sizable drop. I don’t think any of the remaining WR’s are worth a first.

It’s a great class to capitalize on a huge need of getting a weapon for the offense. If Arroyo is the guy I don’t see why not?

Truth is Kelce is an old, washed player that can provide some moments of his glory days but it’s became more and more rare. His legs are gone. Love him but it’s pretty clear he’s not the threat he was 3 years ago.

Wouldn’t necessarily say we are trying to replace him bc that’s impossible. I think we need a real threat there. A guy that can make plays and get YAC and Noah Gray is not ever gonna be more than a role player IMO

I’d prefer to use a 2nd but if he’s got that much upside and board falls that way I don’t see why not?

We had so many issues with old players and lack of explosive plays. We gotta make that a major priority this offseason

It’s safe to say this draft is loaded with RBs?

I also see Smith falling into the late rounds.

I’d absolutely love him and Logan Brown in the 7th, assuming they’re available at our picks. Smith has great highlights, plenty of experience considering they seemed to force feed him, he moves really well in space with the ball in his hands and as I see him fall I’ve been wondering if it would be a total sin to take 2 RBs. A starter in the 2nd to 4th rounds, and a gadget/special teams guy in the 7th but we don’t have enough picks to justify that so would probably have to be an UDFA. More realistically, I think we might need to take to O-linemen in the draft if we’re doubling down on any position.

I see you like Gordon, I’m intrigued, but can someone explain to me why he’s all over the board? He was a top guy a year ago, now most have him going late. What’s his story? What’s your take on him?

I feel a little guilty with 26 first-round grades. I think I have 30 2nd and 32 3rd-round grades. That will all change soon but that's where I'm sitting now.

I don't feel like I'm really forcing anyone in the 1st, except maybe Shedeur and Conerly. They might be more fringe but I don't know that I'd change much against too many classes.

Anyone you would axe off of this 1st round grade list? Anyone you'd absolutely add?
QB Ward, Sanders
RB Jeanty
WR McMillan, Burden III, Egbuka
TE Warren, Loveland
OL Simmons, Campbell, Banks, Conerly, Membou, Booker
ER Carter, Scourton, Green, Pearce, Walker
DT Graham, Nolan, Harmon
CB Hunter, Johnson, Morrison (depending on his hip)
SS Starks