ChiefsPlanet

ChiefsPlanet (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/index.php)
-   Nzoner's Game Room (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/forumdisplay.php?f=1)
-   -   Royals 2014 Royals Repository (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=279729)

dallaschiefsfan 02-13-2014 04:46 PM

79 games? Do you really believe that? We'll win over 80 and it won't even be close unless Shields and Hosmer have season ending injuries.

Chiefspants 02-13-2014 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 10432003)
80% would be phenomenal, given the league-wide conversion rate the past few years has been only 68%. If Holland drops to league average that's 34/50, or 16 blown.

Closing out games at this level is damn hard.
http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Bu...rs-BBD3904.htm

Yeah, that's atrociously misleading, as it counts EVERY blown save recorded by every reliever in a bullpen.

Case in Point: That chart is factoring in Aaron Crow's billion blown saves against Holland's save total over last year.

So, I repeat, for an individual closer to rack up 10 blown saves would be an absolute atrocity of a season.

dallaschiefsfan 02-13-2014 04:49 PM

Go troll some objective Detroit fans. There's not an honest fan that believes they aren't losing more games this year than last. Ditto with the Indians who maxed out in the most ridiculous fashion. They played WAY above their heads. We'll win at least the same, if not more due to divisional gains. My only concern is how many more wins the Twins will take this year. They won't be great, but they won't be nearly as bad as last season. Sox will be about the same, IMO.

lewdog 02-13-2014 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan (Post 10432012)
We'll win over 80 and it won't even be close unless Shields and Hosmer have season ending injuries.

We're the Royals. Anything could happen. We could have both those guys playing and we could underachieve to a new underachieving level. It's called, "Royaling it up." I think we've all seen it before.

Bowser 02-13-2014 04:53 PM

Anything new on the Santana front?

alnorth 02-13-2014 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants (Post 10432021)
Yeah, that's atrociously misleading, as it counts EVERY blown save recorded by every reliever in a bullpen.

Case in Point: That chart is factoring in Aaron Crow's billion blown saves against Holland's save total over last year.

So, I repeat, for an individual closer to rack up 10 blown saves would be an absolute atrocity of a season.

Yeah, a lot of those blown saves are going to be situations like where a reliever comes in during the 6th inning, (so there's no way in hell they are going to finish the game), and they blow the lead. They get a blown save, even though they were never going to get the save for that game.

You have to look at only closers for an acceptable save conversion rate.

Chiefspants 02-13-2014 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser (Post 10432029)
Anything new on the Santana front?

Dayton's pretty much confirmed that we're done spending and the rotation is set for the year. However, each day he remains unsigned leaves some 1 in a billion like chance that he'll somehow make it back here.

The odds are incredibly slim, however.

dallaschiefsfan 02-13-2014 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog (Post 10432026)
We're the Royals. Anything could happen. We could have both those guys playing and we could underachieve to a new underachieving level. It's called, "Royaling it up." I think we've all seen it before.

Battered wife syndrome has to end. If we tank, we tank. But stop letting previous seasons and experiences dictate your optimism/pessimism. It's weak.

alnorth 02-13-2014 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants (Post 10432031)
Dayton's pretty much confirmed that we're done spending for the year. However, each day he remains unsigned leaves some 1 in a billion like chance that he'll somehow make it back here.

The odds are incredibly slim, however.

The odds are 1 in 250 billion, I already estimated it a few pages back.

Chiefspants 02-13-2014 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 10432037)
The odds are 1 in 250 billion, I already estimated it a few pages back.

LMAO

blake5676 02-13-2014 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants (Post 10432021)
Yeah, that's atrociously misleading, as it counts EVERY blown save recorded by every reliever in a bullpen.

Case in Point: That chart is factoring in Aaron Crow's billion blown saves against Holland's save total over last year.

So, I repeat, for an individual closer to rack up 10 blown saves would be an absolute atrocity of a season.


Yeah, when you start getting in the double digit category you likely no longer have a 9th inning job. In fact, in MLB history the record is 14 BS in a year. And it was a lot tougher back in the day when guys threw more than one inning. Definitely misleading.

Bowser 02-13-2014 05:00 PM

I mean, I know it would be a real drag to have Santana make his way back here again, just to have Chen go back to the bench.....

Chiefspants 02-13-2014 05:04 PM

What I will say is that Santana (unless some team still finds a way to overspend) should look for a new agent next year. His agent ridiculously overpriced him heading into the offseason, and it caused teams to immediately look toward other options before considering Santana. His list of suitors is narrowing by the day. With Arroyo, Burnett and Yoon going to the Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Orioles last week, it looks like the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rockies, Yankees and Indians may be the teams left standing.

This is problematic for Ervin, as all of these teams aren't in a huge need of a starting pitcher and have professed that they're not looking to spend a lot more through FA (with the Rockies and Blue Jays previously refusing to negotiate with Ervin's reduced target of 4/60).

Sure, it's possible that Ervin will still catch lightning in a bottle, but it's much more likely that's he's going to make much less than he could have with a different agent. Add in the fact that his agent OPENLY bashed David Glass over twitter, and it's unmistakably clear that his agent was in over his head with handling Ervin's demands this offseason.


TLDR: Ervin's agent sucks, caused Ervin to lose out on potential suitors and openly trashed David Glass over twitter.

alnorth 02-13-2014 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants (Post 10432050)
What I will say is that Santana (unless some team still finds a way to overspend) should look for a new agent next year. His agent ridiculously overpriced him heading into the offseason, and it caused teams to immediately look toward other options before considering Santana. His list of suitors is narrowing by the day. With Arroyo, Burnett and Yoon going to the Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Orioles, it looks like the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rockies, Yankees and Indians may be the teams left standing.

This is problematic for Ervin, as all of these teams have professed that they're not looking to spend a lot more through FA (with the Rockies and Blue Jays previously refusing to negotiate with Ervin's target of 4/60).

Sure, it's possible that Ervin will still catch lightning in a bottle, but it's much more likely that's he's going to make much less than he could have with a different agent. Add in the fact that his agent OPENLY bashed David Glass over twitter, and it's unmistakably clear that his agent was in over his head with his demands this offseason.


TLDR: Ervin's agent sucks, caused Ervin to lose out on potential suitors and openly trashed David Glass over twitter.

Agreed, Santana's agent is an idiot.

dallaschiefsfan 02-13-2014 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser (Post 10432045)
I mean, I know it would be a real drag to have Santana make his way back here again, just to have Chen go back to the bench.....

Santana aside, I'm just hoping that Duffy and Ventura have the type of spring where it's embarrassingly negligent on Ned's part to put Chen in the rotation. I like him coming out of the pen and being the spot starter for when those young guys need a week off or when they get dead arm.


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:37 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.